Foreign interventions and community cohesion in times of conflict

The success of foreign interventions critically depends on cohesion within local communities, which serve as relevant partners in counterinsurgency and reconstruction efforts. Using unique data on military base locations and counterinsurgency aid in Afghanistan, I show that the presence of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) negatively affects social cohesion, measured by support within communities, engagement with community institutions, and trust. I leverage a geographic regression discontinuity design to estimate effects of ISAF’s geographic mandate enlargement, complemented by a panel analysis that covers its operational intensification. These findings do not appear to reflect crowding-out of informal institutions by formal provision; rather, they coincide with higher insecurity and reduced confidence in local institutions, offering a plausible explanation for the observed erosion of community cohesion. These findings carry important implications for foreign policy, particularly in settings where communities compensate for gaps in formal institutional provision.