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Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-Out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Elliot Anenberg
  • Tess Scharlemann
  • Eileen van Straelen

Abstract

We show that the strong negative effect of higher mortgage rates on cash-out refinancing reflects substitution into other borrowing products, not large changes in total new household borrowing. We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy surprises to show that changes in cash-out and other borrowing are roughly offsetting. The elasticity of new household borrowing with respect to mortgage rates is low and varies little with the borrower's outstanding mortgage rate. Our results suggest that the cash-out refinance channel of unconventional monetary policy is weak and not path dependent.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliot Anenberg & Tess Scharlemann & Eileen van Straelen, 2025. "Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-Out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(11), pages 3909-3940, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:11:p:3909-40
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231264
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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