Migration Intention Index of International Students in Russia

Russia maintains its position as one of the world’s leading destinations for international students, with current enrollment figures reaching 389,000 in 2024 and projected to increase to 410,000 by 2025. Given the recognized quality of Russian higher education, many international graduates represent valuable potential contributors to Russia’s labor market and society. To facilitate their targeted integration, systematic monitoring of migration intentions is essential. This study presents a novel Migration Intention Index designed to assess international students’ propensity to remain in Russia post-graduation. Our methodological framework incorporates multiple factors influencing both the desire and capacity of students to establish long-term residence in Russia. The development process involved Ñ ompiling an extensive set of indicator statements, conducting correlation analysis to eliminate negatively correlated variables, and implementing a standardization formula to scale index values between 0 and 1 for intuitive interpretation. Empirical testing yielded an overall Migration Intention Index score of 0.68, with gender-specific scores of 0.71 for male and 0.65 for female respondents. These results indicate stronger retention potential among male international students.The proposed index serves as an effective tool for assessing and predicting the retention of skilled international graduates.The methodology offers substantial potential for expansion, including incorporation of additional relevant indicators, and customization to meet specific policy monitoring requirements.