Institutional Development of the Greater Tumen Initiative: 30 Years On

The Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) regards as the leading economic cooperation framework in Northeast Asia, having been in operation for thirty years. Its development is under economic globalization, geostrategic shifts, and the subsequent rise of protectionism. This article examines the economic and legal characteristics of integration cooperation in the subregion. It analyzes the forms of decision-making within the association and describes the trade and economic relations between China, Russia, the Republic of Korea, and Mongolia using indicators of trade turnover, the trade intensity index, and the trade complementarity index. As a result, the main stages of the GTI’s institutional development within the international economic system identify: international legal establishment (1995–2004); institutional restructuring (2005–2010); functional integration (2011–2020); digital and environmental transition (since 2021). Having emerged from the classical model of forming a subject of international law, over 30 years the GTI transforms into a «soft law» laboratory in the NEA based on cooperation and institutional interaction. The institutional development of the partnership has an indirect impact on the mutual trade flows of the participating countries, despite the high level of interest they show in one another. The aggregate imports of these countries grew at a faster pace, but trade flows are under geopolitical tensions. The trade intensity index between the participating countries confirms interest in the partnership, but there is potential for growth. The trade complementarity index indicates the relative compatibility of the countries’ trade profiles and illustrates a divergent trend. It concludes that there is a need to increase the intensity and complementarity of trade based on the principle of mutual benefit for all participants.