Analysis of Changes in Supply and Demand of Ecosystem Services in the Sanjiangyuan Region and the Main Driving Factors from 2000 to 2020

Research on the supply–demand relationships of ecosystem services (ESs) in alpine pastoral regions remains relatively scarce, yet it is crucial for regional ecological management and sustainable development. This study focuses on the Sanjiangyuan Region, a typical alpine pastoral area and significant ecological barrier, to quantitatively assess the supply–demand dynamics of key ESs and their spatial heterogeneity from 2000 to 2020. It further aims to elucidate the underlying driving mechanisms, thereby providing a scientific basis for optimizing regional ecological management. Four key ES indicators were selected: water yield (WY), grass yield (GY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ). ES supply and demand were quantified using an integrated approach incorporating the InVEST model, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and spatial analysis techniques. Building on this, the spatial patterns and temporal evolution characteristics of ES supply–demand relationships were analyzed. Subsequently, the Geographic Detector Model (GDM) and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model were employed to identify key drivers influencing changes in the comprehensive ES supply–demand ratio. The results revealed the following: (1) Spatial Patterns: Overall ES supply capacity exhibited a spatial differentiation characterized by “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.” Areas of high ES demand were primarily concentrated in the densely populated eastern region. WY, SC, and HQ generally exhibited a surplus state, whereas GY showed supply falling short of demand in the densely populated eastern areas. (2) Temporal Dynamics: Between 2000 and 2020, the supply–demand ratios of WY and SC displayed a fluctuating downward trend. The HQ ratio remained relatively stable, while the GY ratio showed a significant and continuous upward trend, indicating positive outcomes from regional grass–livestock balance policies. (3) Driving Mechanisms: Climate and natural factors were the dominant drivers of changes in the ES supply–demand ratio. Analysis using the Geographical Detector’s q-statistic identified fractional vegetation cover (FVC, q = 0.72), annual precipitation (PR, q = 0.63), and human disturbance intensity (HD, q = 0.38) as the top three most influential factors. This study systematically reveals the spatial heterogeneity characteristics, dynamic evolution patterns, and core driving mechanisms of ES supply and demand in an alpine pastoral region, addressing a significant research gap. The findings not only provide a reference for ES supply–demand assessment in similar regions regarding indicator selection and methodology but also offer direct scientific support for precisely identifying priority areas for ecological conservation and restoration, optimizing grass–livestock balance management, and enhancing ecosystem sustainability within the Sanjiangyuan Region.