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Probability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration

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Cited by:

  1. James K. Hammitt & Yifan Zhang, 2013. "Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, January.
  2. Henry A. Roman & James K. Hammitt & Tyra L. Walsh & David M. Stieb, 2012. "Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2133-2151, December.
  3. Roopesh Ranjan & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Combining probability forecasts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(1), pages 71-91, January.
  4. Anil Gaba & Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2017. "Combining Interval Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, March.
  5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  6. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
  7. Stephen C. Hora, 2013. "A Note on the Aggregation of Event Probabilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 909-914, May.
  8. Stephen C. Hora & Benjamin R. Fransen & Natasha Hawkins & Irving Susel, 2013. "Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 279-291, December.
  9. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
  10. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.
  11. Eggstaff, Justin W. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2014. "The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 72-82.
  12. Tilmann Gneiting, 2008. "Editorial: Probabilistic forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(2), pages 319-321, April.
  13. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Stephen C. Hora, 2010. "An Analytic Method for Evaluating the Performance of Aggregation Rules for Probability Densities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1440-1449, October.
  15. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., 2017. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1110-1130, April.
  16. Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
  17. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  18. Amir Latif & Martha Fani Cahyandito & Gemilang Lara Utama, 2023. "Circular Economy Concept at the Micro-Level: A Case Study of Taruna Mukti Farmer Group, Bandung Regency, West Java, Indonesia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, February.
  19. Stephen Hora & Erim Kardeş, 2015. "Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 229(1), pages 429-450, June.
  20. Satopää, Ville A., 2021. "Improving the wisdom of crowds with analysis of variance of predictions of related outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1728-1747.
  21. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
  22. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
  23. Taylor, James W. & Taylor, Kathryn S., 2023. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 25-41.
  24. Anna Chrysafi & Vili Virkki & Mika Jalava & Vilma Sandström & Johannes Piipponen & Miina Porkka & Steven J. Lade & Kelsey Mere & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Laura Scherer & Lauren S. Andersen & Elena Bennet, 2022. "Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 830-842, October.
  25. Justin W. Eggstaff & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Shahram Sarkani, 2014. "The Development of Progress Plans Using a Performance‐Based Expert Judgment Model to Assess Technical Performance and Risk," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 375-391, December.
  26. Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2018. "Gender Composition and Group Confidence Judgment: The Perils of All-Male Groups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5877-5898, December.
  27. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Gilberto Montibeller, 2015. "Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
  28. Fatemi, Seyyed A. & Kuh, Anthony & Fripp, Matthias, 2018. "Parametric methods for probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(PA), pages 666-676.
  29. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  30. Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2021. "Elaborating or Aggregating? The Joint Effects of Group Decision-Making Structure and Systematic Errors on the Value of Group Interactions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4287-4309, July.
  31. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  32. Victor Richmond R. Jose & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, 2014. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 463-475, February.
  33. David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu, 2006. "To Bayes or Not to Bayes? A Comparison of Two Classes of Models of Information Aggregation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 145-162, September.
  34. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
  35. Sulian Wang & Chen Wang, 2021. "Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 78-99, March.
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