Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing

Citations

Cited by:

1. Gloria Gonzalez‐Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2020. "Prediction regions for interval‐valued time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 373-390, June.
   • Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2018. "Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series," Working Papers 201817, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
   • Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2019. "Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series," Working Papers 201921, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
   • Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008. "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2008-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2011.
3. Lin, Wei & González-Rivera, Gloria, 2016. "Interval-valued time series models: Estimation based on order statistics exploring the Agriculture Marketing Service data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 694-711.
   • Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2015. "Interval-valued Time Series Models: Estimation based on Order Statistics. Exploring the Agriculture Marketing Service Data," Working Papers 201505, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
4. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2020. "Revealing forecaster's preferences: A Bayesian multivariate loss function approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 412-437, April.
5. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
   • Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
   • Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
6. Wei Lin & Gloria González‐Rivera, 2019. "Extreme returns and intensity of trading," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1121-1140, November.
   • Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2016. "Extreme Returns and Intensity of Trading," Working Papers 201607, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
   • Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2017. "Extreme Returns and Intensity of Trading," Working Papers 201801, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
7. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2019. "Statistical and economic evaluation of time series models for forecasting arrivals at call centers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 923-955, September.
   • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," MPRA Paper 76308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
   • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2017. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 253725, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
   • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Papers 1804.08315, arXiv.org.
   • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2017. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Working Papers 2017.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
8. Andrea BASTIANIN & Marzio GALEOTTI & Matteo MANERA, 2011. "Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria," Departmental Working Papers 2011-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
   • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1109, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
   • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," MPRA Paper 76308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
9. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
10. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
11. Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R., 2019. "Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1627-1635.
    • Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
12. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition," CAMA Working Papers 2014-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Tara M. Sinclair & Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Herman Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-17, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
13. Alp, Tansel & Demetrescu, Matei, 2010. "Joint forecasts of Dow Jones stocks under general multivariate loss function," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2360-2371, November.
14. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
15. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
    • Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
16. Wang, Yiyao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2014. "Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 235-245.
    • Tae-Hwy Lee & Yiyao Wang, 2014. "Asymmetric Loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 201407, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
17. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
18. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Tsionas, Mike G., 2015. "How are market preferences shaped? The case of sovereign debt of stressed euro-area countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 106-116.
19. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
20. Fabiana Gomez & David Pacini, 2015. "Counting Biased Forecasters: An Application of Multiple Testing Techniques," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/661, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
21. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
22. Jingwei Pan, 0000. "Evaluating Correlation Forecasts Under Asymmetric Loss," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413234, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
23. Tae-Hwy Lee & Tao Wang, 2023. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments," Papers 2309.09481, arXiv.org.
    • Tae-Hwy Lee & Tao Wang, 2023. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments," Working Papers 202307, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
24. An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
25. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Persistent Liquidity," Working Papers 1010, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
26. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2018. "Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series," Working Papers 201817, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    • González-Rivera, Gloria & Luo, Yun & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2019. "Prediction regions for interval-valued time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 29054, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2019. "Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series," Working Papers 201921, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
27. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
28. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
29. Boskabadi, Elahe, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and forecast bias in the survey of professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 115081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
30. Christodoulakis, George, 2020. "Estimating the term structure of commodity market preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1146-1163.
31. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2014. "Interval-valued Time Series: Model Estimation based on Order Statistics," Working Papers 201429, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
32. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2022. "Evaluating plant managers’ production plans over business cycles: asymmetric loss and rationality," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-29, August.
33. Andrea BASTIANIN & Marzio GALEOTTI & Matteo MANERA, 2011. "Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria," Departmental Working Papers 2011-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," Working Papers 20110301, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
    • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2017. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 253725, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2017. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Working Papers 2017.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Papers 1804.08315, arXiv.org.
    • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," MPRA Paper 76308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1109, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
34. Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo Dicecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 205-228, February.
    • Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo DiCecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts," Working Papers 2013-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Dec 2017.
35. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," Working Papers 20110301, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
    • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2017. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," ET: Economic Theory 253725, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Papers 1804.08315, arXiv.org.
    • Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2017. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," Working Papers 2017.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers," MPRA Paper 76308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
36. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2023. "Asymmetry and interdependence when evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    • Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2022. "Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration Forecasts," MPRA Paper 115559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
37. Ulu, Yasemin, 2013. "Multivariate test for forecast rationality under asymmetric loss functions: Recent evidence from MMS survey of inflation–output forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 168-171.
38. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 961-994, Elsevier.
39. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
40. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.