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Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples

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Cited by:

  1. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
  2. Oreffice, Sonia & Quintana-Domeque, Climent, 2021. "Gender inequality in COVID-19 times: evidence from UK prolific participants," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 261-287, June.
  3. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2022. "Managing Households’ Expectations with Unconventional Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1597-1642.
  4. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
  5. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
  6. Ehrmann, Michael & Blinder, Alan & De Haan, Jakob & ,, 2022. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Cars Hommes & Julien Pinter & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment," Staff Working Papers 23-36, Bank of Canada.
  8. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
  9. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
  10. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
  11. Roth, Christopher & Graeber, Thomas & Zimmermann, Florian, 2022. "Stories, Statistics, and Memory," CEPR Discussion Papers 17683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Fessler, Pirmin & Silgoner, Maria Antoinette, 2023. "Households' financial resilience, risk perceptions, and financial literacy: Evidence from a survey experiment," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-074, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  13. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  14. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
  15. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
  16. Moritz A. Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt, 2022. "Pricing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9608, CESifo.
  17. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
  19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 3-39, March.
  20. Andre, Peter & Schirmer, Philipp & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Mental models of the stock market," SAFE Working Paper Series 406, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  21. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
  22. Laura Arnemann & Kai A Konrad & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "Collective memories on the 2010 European debt crisis," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(4), pages 762-784, December.
  23. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  24. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation," SAFE Working Paper Series 400, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  25. Peter Andre & Armin Falk, 2021. "What’s Worth Knowing? Economists’ Opinions about Economics," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 102, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  26. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Expectation formation in a new environment: Evidence from the German reunification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 301-320.
  27. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  28. Max Lobeck & Morten Nyborg Støstad, 2023. "The Consequences of Inequality: Beliefs and Redistributive Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 10710, CESifo.
  29. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
  30. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  31. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
  32. Peter Andre, 2022. "Shallow Meritocracy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_318v3, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  33. Åkesson, Jesper & Hahn, Robert & Metcalfe, Robert & Rasooly, Itzhak, 2022. "Race and Redistribution in the United States: An Experimental Analysis," SocArXiv 9pr34, Center for Open Science.
  34. Armantier, Olivier & Sbordone, Argia & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Williams, John C., 2022. "A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 82-101.
  35. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
  36. Peter Andre & Philipp Schirmer & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Mental Models of the Stock Market," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 259, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  37. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
  38. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 35-51.
  39. Barrios, John M. & Hochberg, Yael V., 2021. "Risk perceptions and politics: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 862-879.
  40. Tukiainen, Janne & Blesse, Sebastian & Bohne, Albrecht & Giuffrida, Leonardo M. & Jääskeläinen, Jan & Luukinen, Ari & Sieppi, Antti, 2021. "What are the priorities of bureaucrats? Evidence from conjoint experiments with procurement officials," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-033, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  41. Dmitriy Sergeyev & Chen Lian & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2023. "The Economics of Financial Stress," NBER Working Papers 31285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Luisa Dörr & Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2024. "Experteneinschätzungen zum globalen Standortwettbewerb," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 142.
  43. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Economics Series Working Papers 973, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  44. Starkov, Egor, 2023. "Only time will tell: Credible dynamic signaling," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  45. Carvajal, Daniel & Franco, Catalina & Isaksson, Siri, 2024. "Will Artificial Intelligence Get in the Way of Achieving Gender Equality?," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 3/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
  46. Andre, Peter, 2023. "Shallow meritocracy," SAFE Working Paper Series 405, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  47. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  48. Conrad, Christian & Enders, Zeno & Glas, Alexander, 2022. "The role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  49. Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2023. "The US-Inflation Reduction Act: Global Assessments of Economic Experts," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 138.
  50. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers halshs-03351632, HAL.
  51. Felix Chopra & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 23-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
  52. Stefano Neri & Guido Bulligan & Sara Cecchetti & Francesco Corsello & Andrea Papetti & Marianna Riggi & Concetta Rondinelli & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 712, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  53. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Rüdiger Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9427, CESifo.
  54. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2023. "Cognitive constraints and economic incentives," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2023, Bank of Finland.
  55. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2020. "Effective Policy Communication: Targets versus Instruments," Working Papers 2020-148, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  56. Fries, Tilman & Barron, Kai, 2023. "Narrative Persuasion," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277691, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  57. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
  59. Fiorella De Fiore & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Johannes Schuffels, 2021. "Are households indifferent to monetary policy announcements?," BIS Working Papers 956, Bank for International Settlements.
  60. Conces Binder, Carola & Campbell, Jeffrey & Ryngaert, Jane, 2022. "Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics," MPRA Paper 117628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Human frictions in the transmission of economic policy," Working Paper Series in Economics 128, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  62. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  63. Laudenbach, Christine & Loos, Benjamin & Pirschel, Jenny & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "The trading response of individual investors to local bankruptcies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 928-953.
  64. Felix Chopra & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Andreas Stegmann, 2023. "The Null Result Penalty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 193-219.
  65. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers hal-03468918, HAL.
  66. Peter Andre & Philipp Schirmer & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Mental Models of the Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 10691, CESifo.
  67. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  68. Peter Andre, 2021. "Shallow Meritocracy: An Experiment on Fairness Views," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 115, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  69. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
  71. Laudenbach, Christine & Loos, Benjamin & Pirschel, Jenny & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "The trading response of individual investors to local bankruptcies," SAFE Working Paper Series 272, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  72. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  73. Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Great or grim? Disagreement about Brexit, economic expectations and household spending," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119200, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  74. Shimon Kogan & Florian H. Schneider & Roberto A. Weber, 2021. "Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes," ECON - Working Papers 379, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  75. Christine Laudenbach & Benjamin Loos & Jenny Pirschel & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "The Trading Response of Individual Investors to Local Bankruptcies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8191, CESifo.
  76. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2023. "Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-714, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  77. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  78. Lobeck, Max & Morten.Stostad@nhh.no, Morten Nyborg, 2023. "The Consequences of Inequality: Beliefs and Redistributive Preferences," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 17/2023, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
  79. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
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