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Stories, Statistics, and Memory

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Graeber
  • Christopher Roth
  • Florian Zimmermann
  • Thomas W. Graeber

Abstract

For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances – stories. This paper proposes that we do not always have access to the full wealth of our accumulated information, and that the information type – story versus statistic – is a central determinant of selective memory. In controlled experiments we show that the effect of information on beliefs decays rapidly and exhibits a pronounced story-statistic gap: the average impact of stories on beliefs fades by 33% over the course of a day, but by 73% for statistics. Consistent with a model of similarity and interference in memory, prompting contextual associations with statistics improves recall. A series of mechanism experiments highlights that the lower similarity of stories to interfering information is the key driving force behind the story-statistic gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Graeber & Christopher Roth & Florian Zimmermann & Thomas W. Graeber, 2022. "Stories, Statistics, and Memory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10107, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples [Rationally Confused: On the Aggregate Implications of Information Provision Policies]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    2. Benjamin Enke, 2020. "What You See Is All There Is," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1363-1398.
    3. Benjamin Enke & Frederik Schwerter & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Associative Memory and Belief Formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7916, CESifo.
    4. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968–978-9, December.
    5. Nicholas Epley & Thomas Gilovich, 2016. "The Mechanics of Motivated Reasoning," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 133-140, Summer.
    6. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2005. "Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation," International Economic Association Series, in: Bina Agarwal & Alessandro Vercelli (ed.), Psychology, Rationality and Economic Behaviour, chapter 2, pages 19-57, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CEBI working paper series 21-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    8. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2020. "A Model of Competing Narratives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3786-3816, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Amelio & Florian Zimmermann, 2023. "Motivated Memory in Economics—A Review," Games, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Christopher Roth & Peter Schwardmann & Egon Tripodi, 2024. "Misperceived Effectiveness and the Demand for Psychotherapy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 279, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. George Loewenstein & Zachary Wojtowicz, 2023. "The Economics of Attention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10712, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    memory; belief formation; stories; narratives; statistical information;
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