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Natural resource distribution and multiple forms of civil war

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  • Massimo Morelli
  • Dominic Rohner

Abstract

We examine how natural resource location, rent sharing and fighting capacities of different groups matter for ethnic conflict. A new type of bargaining failure due to multiple types of potential conflicts (and hence multiple threat points) is identified. The theory predicts conflict to be more likely when the geographical distribution of natural resources is uneven and when a minority group has better chances to win a secessionist rather than a centrist conflict. For sharing rents, resource proportionality is salient in avoiding secessions and strength proportionality in avoiding centrist civil wars. We present empirical evidence that is consistent with the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 498.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:498

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Keywords: Natural resources; conflict; strength proportionality; resource proportionality; secession; bargaining failure.;

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References

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  1. Rick van der Ploeg & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "War and Natural Resource Exploitation," OxCarre Working Papers 042, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  2. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
  3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Dominic Rohner, 2009. "Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27, January.
  4. Hodler, Roland, 2006. "The curse of natural resources in fractionalized countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1367-1386, August.
  5. Francesco Caselli, 2007. "On the theory of ethnic conflict," 2007 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2011. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1345-74, June.
  7. Angrist, Joshua & Kugler, Adriana D., 2005. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income and Civil Conflict in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 5324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Joan Esteban & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "Strategic Mass Killings," Working Papers 459, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  9. Joan Mª Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2005. "A Model of Ethnic Conflict," Working Papers 253, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  10. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore, 1995. "On the Number and Size of Nations," NBER Working Papers 5050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Grossman, Herschel I. & Mendoza, Juan, 2003. "Scarcity and appropriative competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-758, November.
  12. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 379-414, June.
  13. Jackson, Matthew O. & Morelli, Massimo, . "Political bias and war," Working Papers 1247, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  14. Acemoglu, Daron, 2003. "Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 620-652, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Vincent Anesi, 2010. "Secessionism and Minority Protection in an Uncertain World," Discussion Papers 2010-15, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
  2. Francesco Caselli, 2012. "The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars," 2012 Meeting Papers 1174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Samuel Bazzi, Christopher Blattman, 2011. " Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Price- Working Paper 274," Working Papers 274, Center for Global Development.
  4. Vincent Anesi & Philippe De Donder, 2011. "Voting under the threat of secession: accommodation vs. repression," Working Papers 2011/40, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  5. Roland Hodler, 2012. "The Political Economics of the Arab Spring," CESifo Working Paper Series 4023, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Holger Breinlich & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2013. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," CEP Discussion Papers dp1232, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Frederick van der Ploeg & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "War and natural resource exploitation," IEW - Working Papers 481, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  8. Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2013. "The geography of inter-state resource wars," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51548, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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