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Humanitäre Zuwanderung und die Nachhaltigkeit der deutschen Staatsfinanzen

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  • Bonin, Holger
  • Ludwig, Alexander

Abstract

Der Beitrag untersucht mit Hilfe der Generationenbilanzierung die möglichen Folgen der aktuellen humanitären Zuwanderung nach Deutschland für die Nachhaltigkeit der Staatsfinanzen. Es werden sowohl statische Projektionen als auch dynamische Simulationsrechnungen mit endogenen makroökonomischen Anpassungen an die Aufnahme der überdurchschnittlich jungen und unterdurchschnittlich qualifizierten Flüchtlinge durchgeführt. Die Befunde zeigen, dass die humanitäre Zuwanderung nach Deutschland die Nachhaltigkeit der Staatsfinanzen eher verschlechtern als verbessern dürfte. Die finanziellen Zusatzlasten für die einheimische Bevölkerung erscheinen aber noch beherrschbar und sind deutlich geringer als die Zusatzlasten durch die gesellschaftliche Alterung. Zudem könnten wirksame aktive Maßnahmen für eine bessere berufliche Qualifizierung und schnellere wirtschaftliche Integration der Flüchtlinge helfen, dem finanzpolitischen Ziel nachhaltiger Staatsfinanzen näher zu kommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonin, Holger & Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "Humanitäre Zuwanderung und die Nachhaltigkeit der deutschen Staatsfinanzen," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145609
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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