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Timing and sequenzing der monetären Integration

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  • Jochem, Axel

Abstract

Der vorliegende Diskussionsbeitrag entstand im Rahmen eines Forschungsprojektes über die monetäre Integration von fünf mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Beitrittskandidaten (Estland, Polen, Slowenien, Tschechische Republik und Ungarn). Während die vorangegangenen Kapitel des Projekts die Vor- und Nachteile verschiedener Wechselkursregime für die Übergangsphase vor einer Teilnahme an der Europäischen Währungsunion herausarbeiteten, befaßt sich der vorliegende Beitrag mit dem Timing und Sequencing der monetären Integration. Er kommt zu dem Schluß, daß eine Wechselkurskooperation erst nach einer kurzen Phase völlig flexibler Wechselkurse empfehlenswert ist. Mit dem Beginn ihrer EU-Mitgliedschaft sollten die fünf Länder auch dem EWS II beitreten, untereinander allerdings engere Bandbreiten einhalten als gegenüber dem Euro. Eine Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Währungsunion wird gemäß den Bestimmungen des EG-Vertrags frühestens nach zweijähriger Bewährung im Europäischen Wechselkursmechanismus möglich sein, also voraussichtlich nicht vor 2005. -- This paper is part of a research project on monetary integration of five EU-accession candidates (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia). While the preceding chapters of the project have focused on the pros and cons of different exchange rate regimes for the transition phase before CEE countries may become member of the European Monetary Union, this paper deals with the Timing and Sequencing of monetary integration. It comes to the conclusion that an exchange rate co-operation should only start after a short period of fully flexible exchange rates and that the snake of five (or four) CEE-currencies should enter the EMS-tunnel at the same time as EUmembership is achieved. According to the rules of the EC-Treaty an accession to the Euro-area will only be possible after two years of successful EMS-membership, i.e. not before 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2000,2.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20002

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Keywords: EWU; Transformationsländer; Wechselkurspolitik; EMU; Economies in Transition; Exchange Rate Policy;

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References

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  1. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and sequencing of reforms: Competing views," Kiel Working Papers 552, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Burda, Michael C, 1998. "The Consequences of EU Enlargement for Central and Eastern European Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1881, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-88, September.
  4. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1994. "Central Europe and European monetary integration: a strategy for catching up," ZEW Discussion Papers 94-21, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  8. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-48, February.
  10. Lal, Deepak, 1987. "The Political Economy of Economic Liberalization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 1(2), pages 273-99, January.
  11. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and Sequencing of Reforms: Competing Views and the Role of Credibility," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 337-62.
  12. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1995. "Wirtschaftsreformen in Entwicklungs- und Transformationsländern : Anreizprobleme, Glaubwürdigkeitsdefizite und die Erfolgschancen umfassender Reformen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1636, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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Cited by:
  1. Sell, Friedrich L., 2007. "More about economic and non-economic determinants of (mutual) trust and trustworthiness," Working Papers in Economics 2007,2, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.

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