IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/tuddps/0214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production

Author

Listed:
  • Broll, Udo
  • Wong, Kit Pong

Abstract

This note examines the behavior of a competitive firm that faces joint price and inflation risk. Given that the price risk is negatively correlated with the inflation risk in the sense of expectation dependence, the firm optimally opts for an overhedge if the firm's coefficient of relative risk aversion is everywhere no greater than unity. Furthermore, banning the firm from forward trading may induce the firm to produce more or less, depending on whether the price risk premium is positive or negative, respectively. While the price risk premium is unambiguously negative in the absence of the inflation risk, it is not the case when the inflation risk prevails. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, forward hedging needs not always promote production should firms take in inflation seriously.

Suggested Citation

  • Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2014. "The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/14, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/144882/1/86589843X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kit Pong Wong, 2012. "Production and hedging under state‐dependent preferences," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 945-963, October.
    2. Battermann, Harald L & Broll, Udo, 2001. "Inflation Risk, Hedging, and Exports," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 355-362, October.
    3. Kit Pong Wong, 2013. "A Note on Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks: The Multi‐Country Case," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(12), pages 1191-1196, December.
    4. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    5. Harald L. Battermann & Udo Broll, 2001. "Inflation Risk, Hedging, and Exports," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 355-362, October.
    6. Cuadras, C. M., 2002. "On the Covariance between Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 19-27, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Udo Broll & Kit Wong, 2015. "The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 14(1), pages 65-73, December.
    2. Kit Wong, 2014. "Hedging and the competitive firm under correlated price and background risk," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 329-340, October.
    3. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    4. Kit Wong, 2014. "Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 413-421, October.
    5. Stefan Franz Schubert & Udo Broll, 2015. "Consumption, inflation risk and dynamic hedging," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(2), June.
    6. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Futures hedging with basis risk and expectation dependence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 213-221, September.
    7. Wong, Kit Pong, 2017. "Production and hedging under state-dependent preferences and background risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 527-534.
    8. Broll, Udo & Pelster, Matthias & Kit, Pong Wong, 2021. "Export under risk and expectation dependence," CEPIE Working Papers 02/21, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    9. Wong, Kit Pong, 2013. "Fixed versus variable rate loans under state-dependent preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 659-663.
    10. Park, Timothy A. & Antonovitz, Frances, 1991. "Econometric Tests Of Firm Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Optimal Output And Hedging Decisions," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "Optimal full-hedging under state-dependent preferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 937-943.
    12. Beare, Brendan K., 2009. "A generalization of Hoeffding's lemma, and a new class of covariance inequalities," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 637-642, March.
    13. Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35698, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    14. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Hedging Objectives, Hedging Markets, And The Relevant Range Of Hedge Ratios," Working Papers 225826, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    15. Kim, Jae-Gyeong, 1993. "Futures markets in an open economy," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011461, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, July.
    17. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "How To Group Market Participants? Heterogeneity In Hedging Behavior," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Omid Shojaee & Majid Asadi & Maxim Finkelstein, 2021. "On Some Properties of $$\alpha $$ α -Mixtures," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(8), pages 1213-1240, November.
    19. Wong, Kit Pong, 2021. "Comparative risk aversion with two risks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. Fernandes, Gláucia & Gomes, Leonardo & Vasconcelos, Gabriel & Brandão, Luiz, 2016. "Mitigating wind exposure with zero-cost collar insurance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 336-346.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward markets; Expectation dependence; Inflation risk; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pltudde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.