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Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications

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  • Kit Wong

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under price uncertainty. To hedge the price risk, the firm trades unbiased commodity futures contracts with multiple delivery specifications from which delivery risk prevails. We show that the firm optimally produces less in the presence than in the absence of the delivery risk. We show further that the concept of expectation dependence that describes how the delivery risk is correlated with the random spot price plays a pivotal role in determining the firm’s optimal futures position. Specifically, an under-hedge is optimal if the random spot price is positively expectation dependent on the delivery risk. The firm’s optimal futures position becomes indeterminate if the random spot price is negatively expectation dependent on the delivery risk. Copyright Springer-Verlag Italia 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kit Wong, 2014. "Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 413-421, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:37:y:2014:i:2:p:413-421
    DOI: 10.1007/s10203-013-0152-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kit Pong Wong, 2012. "Production and hedging under state‐dependent preferences," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 945-963, October.
    2. Udo Broll & Kit Wong, 2013. "The firm under uncertainty: real and financial decisions," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 36(2), pages 125-136, November.
    3. Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "On the optimal hedge under unbiased futures prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 385-388, March.
    4. Kit Pong Wong, 1996. "Background Risk And The Theory Of The Competitive Firm Under Uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 241-251, July.
    5. MOSSIN, Jan, 1968. "Aspects of rational insurance purchasing," LIDAM Reprints CORE 23, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Li, Jingyuan, 2011. "The demand for a risky asset in the presence of a background risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 372-391, January.
    7. Axel F.A. Adam-Müller & Kit Pong Wong, 2003. "The Impact of Delivery Risk on Optimal Production and Futures Hedging," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 7(3), pages 459-477.
    8. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    9. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    10. Kit Pong Wong, 2003. "Export Flexibility And Currency Hedging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1295-1312, November.
    11. Wong, Kit Pong, 1996. "Background Risk and the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 241-251, July.
    12. Broll, Udo & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1992. "Exchange rate uncertainty, futures markets and the multinational firm," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 815-826, May.
    13. Axel F.A. Adam-Miller & Kit Pont Wong, 2003. "The Impact of Delivery Risk on Optimal Productionand Futures Hedging," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 459-477.
    14. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    15. Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "Optimal full-hedging under state-dependent preferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 937-943.
    16. Kamara, Avraham, 1990. "Delivery Uncertainty and the Efficiency of Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 45-64, March.
    17. Kit Wong, 2014. "Hedging and the competitive firm under correlated price and background risk," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 329-340, October.
    18. Kit Pong Wong, 2013. "Cross Hedging with Currency Forward Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 653-674, July.
    19. Cuadras, C. M., 2002. "On the Covariance between Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 19-27, April.
    20. Broll, Udo F, 1992. "The Effect of Forward Markets on Multinational Firms," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 233-240, July.
    21. Soon Koo Hong & Keun Ock Lew & Richard MacMinn & Patrick Brockett, 2011. "Mossin's Theorem Given Random Initial Wealth," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 309-324, June.
    22. Da‐Hsiang Donald Lien, 1991. "Long hedgers and multiple delivery specifications on futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 557-565, October.
    23. Kamara, Avraham & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Optimal Hedging in Futures Markets with Multiple Delivery Specifications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1007-1021, September.
    24. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Xu & Li, Jingyuan, 2016. "Confidence band for expectation dependence with applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 141-149.
    2. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Futures hedging with basis risk and expectation dependence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 213-221, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Delivery risk; Expectation dependence; Futures hedging; Production; D21; D81; G13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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