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Global availability of phosphorus and its implications for global food supply: An economic overview

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  • Heckenmüller, Markus
  • Narita, Daiju
  • Klepper, Gernot

Abstract

Being of crucial importance for agricultural production and also having experienced significant price volatility, phosphate and its future availability have drawn growing at-tention from both academics and the public over the last years. This paper overviews the recent literature and data on the availability of phosphorus and discusses the eco-nomic aspects of phosphate scarcity by describing major price determinants of the global phosphate market. We show that past price fluctuations of phosphate rock and phosphate fertilisers are not a reflection of physical phosphate rock depletion but rather attributable to numerous other demand- and supply-side factors. Given the current re-serve estimates for phosphate rock, neither an exhaustion of global reserves nor a peak event is likely to occur within this century. However, these estimates are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. Moreover, the global distribution of phosphate production and reserves is highly skewed and has the potential to pose a threat to food security in developing countries through factors such as the volatility of the phosphate rock price or price setting by suppliers with significant market power.

Suggested Citation

  • Heckenmüller, Markus & Narita, Daiju & Klepper, Gernot, 2014. "Global availability of phosphorus and its implications for global food supply: An economic overview," Kiel Working Papers 1897, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1897
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    1. Dawson, C.J. & Hilton, J., 2011. "Fertiliser availability in a resource-limited world: Production and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 14-22, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rami Rawashdeh, 2023. "Estimating short-run (SR) and long-run (LR) demand elasticities of phosphate," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 239-253, June.
    2. Micha, E. & Tsakiridis, A. & Ragkos, A., 2018. "Assessing the importance of soil testing in fertilizer use intensity: an econometric analysis of phosphorus fertilizer allocation in dairy farm systems," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277103, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Kataki, Sampriti & West, Helen & Clarke, Michèle & Baruah, D.C., 2016. "Phosphorus recovery as struvite: Recent concerns for use of seed, alternative Mg source, nitrogen conservation and fertilizer potential," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 142-156.
    4. Olagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi & Feng, Siyi & Patton, Myles, 2021. "Dynamic relationships among phosphate rock, fertilisers and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from a vector error correction model and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Mohamed Bouabidi, 2023. "The surge in Tunisia foreign debt: causes and possible ways out," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Michael Oster & Henry Reyer & Elizabeth Ball & Dario Fornara & John McKillen & Kristina Ulrich Sørensen & Hanne Damgaard Poulsen & Kim Andersson & Daniel Ddiba & Arno Rosemarin & Linda Arata & Paolo S, 2018. "Bridging Gaps in the Agricultural Phosphorus Cycle from an Animal Husbandry Perspective—The Case of Pigs and Poultry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Jessica Stubenrauch & Beatrice Garske & Felix Ekardt, 2018. "Sustainable Land Use, Soil Protection and Phosphorus Management from a Cross-National Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Ludwig Hermann & Fabian Kraus & Ralf Hermann, 2018. "Phosphorus Processing—Potentials for Higher Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, May.

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