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How Can Voters Classify an Incumbent under Output Persistence

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  • Caleiro, António

Abstract

The literature on electoral cycles has developed in two distinct phases. The first one considered the existence of non-rational (naive) voters whereas the second one considered fully rational voters. In our perspective, an intermediate approach is more interesting, i.e. one that considers learning voters, which are boundedly rational. In this sense, neural networks may be considered as learning mechanisms used by voters to perform a classification of the incumbent in order to distinguish opportunistic (electorally motivated) from benevolent (non-electorally motivated) behaviour. The paper shows in which circumstances a neural network, namely a perceptron, can resolve that problem of classification. This is done by considering a model allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may make it impossible to correctly classify the incumbent. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-16.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7258

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Keywords: Classification; elections; incumbent; neural networks; output; persistence; perceptrons;

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  1. Gartner, Manfred, 1996. "Political business cycles when real activity is persistent," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 679-692.
  2. Evans, George W., 1986. "Selection criteria for models with non-uniqueness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 147-157, September.
  3. Michael T. Kiley, 1996. "Endogenous price stickiness and business cycle persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Cripps, Martin, 1988. "Learning Rational Expectations In A Policy Game," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 297, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Gartner, Manfred, 1997. " Time-Consistent Monetary Policy under Output Persistence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 429-37, September.
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