IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201921.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public investment and economic activity in Mexico, 1925-1981

Author

Listed:
  • Fonseca, Felipe
  • Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel
  • Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

Abstract

Mexican economic historiography recognizes the key role that public investment played in the country's economic performance from the post-revolutionary period until the beginning of the economic liberalization that began in the mid-1980s. However, there is no concrete empirical evidence that this was the case. In this study, the authors construct a historical database of public investment - both total and broken down into its main components - for the period from 1925 to 1981, in order to measure the impact it had on economic activity. Given the possible presence of crowding-out effects between public investment and private investment, in their analysis the authors control for the latter. The results suggest that public investment had a significant impact on output one which varies depending on the category of public investment considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Fonseca, Felipe & Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2019. "Public investment and economic activity in Mexico, 1925-1981," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201921
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2019-21
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/194873/1/1662969597.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Gómez-Zaldívar Manuel, 2011. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend When There is Evidence of Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    4. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    5. Miguel D. Ramirez & Nader Nazmi, 2003. "Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 115-126, February.
    6. Mr. Andrew M. Warner, 2014. "Public Investment as an Engine of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2014/148, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    8. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
    9. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    10. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    13. Nader Nazmi & Miguel D. Ramirez, 1997. "Public And Private Investment And Economic Growth In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 65-75, January.
    14. John Geweke & Susan Porter‐Hudak, 1983. "The Estimation And Application Of Long Memory Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 221-238, July.
    15. D. Ventosa-Santaul a & M. G -Zald & F. H. Wallace, 2015. "The real exchange rate, regime changes and volatility shifts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2445-2454, May.
    16. Noriega, Antonio & Fontenla, Matías, 2007. "La infraestructura y el crecimiento económico en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(296), pages 885-900, octubre-d.
    17. Lachler, Ulrich & Aschauer, David Alan, 1998. "Public investment and economic growth in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1964, The World Bank.
    18. Coatsworth, John H., 1979. "Indispensable Railroads in a Backward Economy: The Case of Mexico," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 939-960, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valdez , Rolando I., 2019. "Spatial diffusion of economic growth and externalities in Mexico," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 45, pages 139-160.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    2. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    3. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS, 2000. "Infrastructures, investissement et croissance : un bilan de dix années de recherches," Working Papers 200007, CERDI.
    4. Augustin Ntembe & Aloysius Ajab Amin & Regina Tawah, 2018. "Analysis of public investments and economic growth in Cameroon," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 591-614, July.
    5. Garikai Makuyana & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Malawi: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 673-689, January.
    6. Diego Martinez-Lopez, 2006. "Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 411-423.
    7. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Idrissa Yaya Diandy & Alioune Badara Seck, 2021. "Infrastructures physiques et croissance économique en Afrique de l'Ouest: Le rôle des institutions," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 154-165, March.
    9. Erasmo Papagni & Amedeo Lepore & Emanuele Felice & Anna Laura Baraldi & Maria Rosaria Alfano, 2018. "Public Investment and Growth Accelerations: The Case of Southern Italy, 1951-1995," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    10. Rioja, Felix K., 2003. "Filling potholes: macroeconomic effects of maintenance versus new investments in public infrastructure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2281-2304, September.
    11. Rivera, Berta & Currais, Luis, 2004. "Public Health Capital and Productivity in the Spanish Regions: A Dynamic Panel Data Model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 871-885, May.
    12. Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo & Rodriguez-Pose, Andres, 2004. "The Regional Returns of Public Investment Policies in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1545-1562, September.
    13. Magazzino, Cosimo & Giolli, Lorenzo, 2021. "The relationship among railway networks, energy consumption, and real added value in Italy. Evidence form ARDL and Wavelet analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Maria Herrerias, 2010. "The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(4), pages 509-526, December.
    15. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. I. A. Sokolov & S. G. Belev & O. V. Suchkova, 2021. "How to Ensure Fiscal Sustainability in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 383-390, July.
    17. Bakari, Sayef, 2022. "The Nexus between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: Do Exports matter?," MPRA Paper 114394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dmitriy, Skrypnik, 2020. "Инфраструктура И Экономический Рост. «Бюджетный Маневр» В России [Infrastructure and economic growth. "Budgetary maneuver" in Russia]," MPRA Paper 104920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Aysit Tansel, 2002. "Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999," Working Papers 0209, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Mar 2002.
    20. Cheteni, Priviledge, 2013. "Transport Infrastructure Investment and Transport Sector Productivity on Economic Growth in South Africa (1975-2011)," MPRA Paper 53175, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic activity; federal public investment; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.