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Bias and methodological change in economic sanction reconsidered

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  • van Bergeijk, Peter A. G.
  • Hossain Siddiquee, Muhammad Shahadat

Abstract

The authors investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute data base reported in Hufbauer et al. (Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 2nd edition in 1990 and 3rd edition in 2007). The Peterson Institute has not reported transparently on these changes. At the level of individual case studies the authors uncover a tendency to inflate success scores, reclassifying failures into successes even when the evidence for doing so was not convincing. At the level of the aggregated case studies and general methodology they uncover positive bias (that is: methodological changes that make it more likely to find sanction success as indicated by a higher success score, either on average or in individual cases): splitting of episodes into cases and the changed definition of sanction contribution increase the success ratio in general and ultimately the share of sanctions that are judged to be a success. The authors also show the importance of the reclassification of 'destabilization cases' into 'regime changes'. Their probit analysis shows that the 3rd edition's methodology underestimates the contribution of certain sanction characteristics, including the positive impact of the costs of sanctions to the sender, duration of the sanctions and the sender's companion policies.

Suggested Citation

  • van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Hossain Siddiquee, Muhammad Shahadat, 2015. "Bias and methodological change in economic sanction reconsidered," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201533
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Navin A. Bapat & Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi & T. Clifton Morgan, 2013. "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 79-98, January.
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    6. Shane Bonetti, 1998. "Distinguishing characteristics of degrees of success and failure in economic sanctions episodes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 805-813.
    7. Peter A. G. VAN Bergeijk, 1989. "Success and Failure of Economic Sanctions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 385-404, August.
    8. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    9. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & van Marrewijk, Charles, 1995. "Why do sanctions need time to work? Adjustment, learning and anticipation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 75-86, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sanctions; peterson institute; replication; bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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