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The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade

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  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz
  • Koutronas, Evangelos

Abstract

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of a territorial military conflict. The Intraregional Trade Disruption from War Simulator (ITDW-Simulator) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of the military conflict. The model suggests two primary indicators and four secondary indicators. The final trade suffocation index (TS-Index) and the final investment desgrowth from war function (−δw) measure trade disruption’s potential impact on international trade patterns and economic development. The agriculture exports, industrial and manufacturing exports, service exports, and FDI flows capture the trade and investment interdependency. The model investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukraine military conflict on the bilateral trade and investment between the Russian Federation and the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:599-616
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Khrystyna Huk & Ayaz Zeynalov, 2022. "Regional Disparities and Economic Growth in Ukraine," Papers 2211.05666, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenckery, 2022. "European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia : A computable general equilibrium analysis," Post-Print hal-03887431, HAL.
    4. Ahn, Soojung & Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Global Grain Trade Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335482, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. Ulrich Eydam & Florian Leupold, 2023. "What is it good for? On the Inflationary Effects of Military Conflicts," CEPA Discussion Papers 65, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Cui, Lianbiao & Yue, Suyun & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Duan, Mei, 2023. "Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; Ukraine; Trade suffocation; International trade; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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