Rapid credit growth and current account deficit as the leading determinants of financial crises
AbstractIn this study, the main purpose is to analyze the factors that stimulate the probability of financial crises. The period of analysis covers the years of 1970-2008, thereby including the impact of recent global financial crisis. The analysis aims to make a comparison for the developed and developing country financial crises separately. Panel logit estimation technique is used for the analysis which includes 24 developed and 26 developing countries, amounting to 50 countries as total. According to estimation results, current account deficit and credit expansion carry the risk of raising the probability of financial crises significantly both in advanced countries and developing countries. More specifically, credit expansions in developed countries and current account deficits in developing countries raise the probability of financial crises more strongly. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2013-35.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
financial crisis; predictors of financial crisis; rapid credit expansion; current account deficit;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-15 (All new papers)
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