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Market dynamics of biodegradable bio-based plastics: Projections and linkages to European policies

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  • Döhler, Niklas
  • Wellenreuther, Claudia
  • Wolf, André

Abstract

This paper analyzes the future market perspectives for biodegradable bio-based plastics at the global and the European level. Relevant determinants of demand are identified, categorized and used as a basis for own projections. By implementing a system dynamics approach, the evolution of global production capacities is modelled on an annual basis for the period until 2030. To capture the inherent uncertainty in such a long-term projection, different scenarios are defined and applied to the model, reflecting different developments in GDP growth, oil and bioplastic feedstock prices. In this way, our results document the sensitivity of the bioplastics market towards changes in the macroeconomic environment. The simulations are complemented by a discussion of the relevant regulatory framework at the European level and its potential repercussions on market growth. The results indicate a significant growth potential, which however turns out to be very sensitive towards both economic and political impact factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Döhler, Niklas & Wellenreuther, Claudia & Wolf, André, 2020. "Market dynamics of biodegradable bio-based plastics: Projections and linkages to European policies," HWWI Research Papers 193, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arik Levinson & James O’Brien, 2019. "Environmental Engel Curves: Indirect Emissions of Common Air Pollutants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 121-133, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Vieira Teixeira & José Vitor Bomtempo & Fábio de Almeida Oroski & Paulo Luiz de Andrade Coutinho, 2023. "The Diffusion of Bioplastics: What Can We Learn from Poly(Lactic Acid)?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Halayit Abrha & Jonnathan Cabrera & Yexin Dai & Muhammad Irfan & Abrham Toma & Shipu Jiao & Xianhua Liu, 2022. "Bio-Based Plastics Production, Impact and End of Life: A Literature Review and Content Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Aikaterini Konti & Diomi Mamma & Nicolae Scarlat & Dimitris Damigos, 2022. "The Determinants of the Growth of the European Bioplastics Sector—A Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bioplastics; System Dynamics; European Plastic Policies; Bioeconomy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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