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Demographic change in Switzerland: Impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model

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  • Hauser, Luisa-Marie
  • Schlag, Carsten-Henning
  • Wolf, André

Abstract

This paper analyses the macroeconomic implications of a future shift in the age structure of the Swiss population. It estimates the long-run effects for Swiss GDP growth and its components in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG model). Recent population projections by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) serve as a basis. To document the sensitivity of the results with respect to the demographic assumptions, simulations were undertaken for a range of alternative scenarios concerning fertility, migration and agespecific labor supply. Our projections over the time horizon 2018-2060 document a significant loss in terms of economic growth in both absolute and per capita terms. According to our simulations, this would primarily affect the income of the middle-aged age groups. Likewise, the process of ageing would have consequences for the composition of Swiss GDP: the share of government spending on domestic value added is simulated to increase, due to its demography-related components. A sensitivity analysis reveals that more favourable assumptions concerning future net immigration, fertility and labor market participation could mitigate, but not fully compensate these trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Hauser, Luisa-Marie & Schlag, Carsten-Henning & Wolf, André, 2020. "Demographic change in Switzerland: Impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model," HWWI Research Papers 191, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Isabel Z. Martínez & Emmanuel Saez & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Intertemporal Labor Supply Substitution? Evidence from the Swiss Income Tax Holidays," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 506-546, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buchmann, Manuel, 2020. "The Effect of Demographic Change on the Swiss Labor Market: The Role of Participation Rates," Working papers 2020/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing; OLG-models; Long-term GDP forecasts; Switzerland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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