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Trillion dollar estimate: Illicit financial flows from developing countries

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  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

Recent estimates suggest that developing countries lose about 1 trillion US dollars each year due to illicit financial flows. This paper reviews the empirical methodology that underlies those estimates. Various critical aspects of the analytical approach are highlighted, focusing in particular on deficiencies in the use of mirror trade statistics to quantify the extent of capital outflows due to trade misinvoicing. Serious issues in the empirical analysis include, among others, arbitrary assumptions, mixed methodologies and skewed sampling. As a result, it is argued that the quantitative results obtained from those exercises have no substantive meaning. The trillion-dollar estimate of illicit financial flows from developing countries, therefore, lacks evidence and is uncorroborated.

Suggested Citation

  • Nitsch, Volker, 2016. "Trillion dollar estimate: Illicit financial flows from developing countries," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 227, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2008. "Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_026, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
    3. Nitsch, Volker, 2011. "Trade Mispricing and Illicit Flows," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 54540, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
    5. Storti, Cláudia Costa & De Grauwe, Paul (ed.), 2012. "Illicit Trade and the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016559, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-02019073, HAL.
    2. Mianshan Lai & Jia Hou, 2023. "Let us misinvoice more? The effect of de jure capital controls on trade misinvoicing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2157-2186, July.
    3. Carton, Christine & Slim, Sadri, 2018. "Trade misinvoicing in OECD countries: what can we learn from bilateral trade intensity indices?," MPRA Paper 85703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Paddy Carter & Alex Cobham, 2016. "Are taxes good for your health?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Mario Gara & Michele Giammatteo & Enrico Tosti, 2018. "Magic mirror in my hand�. how trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 445, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Cobham Alex & Davis William & Ibrahim Gamal & Sumner Andy, 2016. "Hidden Inequality: How Much Difference Would Adjustment for Illicit Financial Flows Make to National Income Distributions?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Daniel Dujava & Maria Siranova, 2017. "Getting the Measures of Trade Misinvoicing Right: Bilateral Panel Data Approach," Working Papers wp98, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, revised 20 Dec 2017.
    8. Niels Johannesen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2016. "Capital flight and development: An overview of concepts, methods, and data sources," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Niels Johannesen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2016. "Capital flight and development: An overview of concepts, methods, and data sources," WIDER Working Paper Series 095, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Dujava, Daniel & Siranova, Maria, 2022. "Is it me or you? A deeper insight into profile of misreporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 10-25.
    11. Paddy Carter & Alex Cobham, 2016. "Are taxes good for your health?," WIDER Working Paper Series 171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Olalere Isaac Opeyemi, 2022. "Predicting Trade Mispricing: A Gaussian Multivariate Anomaly Detection Model ," GATR Journals jber221, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade misinvoicing; mispricing; capital flight;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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