IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gtr/gatrjs/jber221.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting Trade Mispricing: A Gaussian Multivariate Anomaly Detection Model

Author

Listed:
  • Olalere Isaac Opeyemi

    (Durban University of Tech., Durban, 4000, Durban, KZN, South Africa Author-2-Name: Dewa Mendon Author-2-Workplace-Name: Durban University of Tech., Durban, 4000, Durban, KZN, South Africa Author-3-Name: Dlamini Lenhle Author-3-Workplace-Name: Durban University of Tech., Durban, 4000, Durban, KZN, South Africa Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)

Abstract

"Objective - This paper predicts a measurement indicator for the trade mispricing channel and its effectiveness in identifying IFFs. Methodology - A model gaussian multivariate anomaly detection algorithm, for classifying between legal and illegal transactions that are suspicious in terms of misreporting was developed. The method is a machine learning technique and uses data from South Africa, Botswana, the USA, and China over a period from 2000 to 2019, to learn whether there are any intriguing differences in the model performance based on these countries and the effect of other factors. Imports and Exports are used as features of the model while the net flow derived from these features is used as the third feature of the model. Imports and exports data are sourced from IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics database. Annual tariffs data and corruption data come from the WDI database and Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index, respectively. Data for 'accounting and auditing standards' comes from the world economic forum. Findings - The result showed that while the model may be effective in detecting IFFs due to mispricing, other factors may however contribute to irregularities of trading data that is flagged as IFFs. This in addition to accounting for total quantum, also provides details empowering governments with the information to stimulate and drive the desire to curb IFFs from its different sources and channels. Novelty - This study contributes to the debate on trade mispricing by proving a baseline measurement to help detect and track IFFs. Type of Paper - Empirical"

Suggested Citation

  • Olalere Isaac Opeyemi, 2022. "Predicting Trade Mispricing: A Gaussian Multivariate Anomaly Detection Model ," GATR Journals jber221, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber221
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2022.7.1(2)
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/JBER/pdf_files/JBERVol7(1)2022/2.Olalere%20Isaac%20Opeyemi.pdf
    Download Restriction: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/online_submission.html
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2022.7.1(2)?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald B. Davies & Julien Martin & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2018. "Knocking on Tax Haven’s Door: Multinational Firms and Transfer Pricing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 120-134, March.
    2. Javorcik, Beata S. & Narciso, Gaia, 2008. "Differentiated products and evasion of import tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 208-222, December.
    3. Derek Kellenberg & Arik Levinson, 2019. "Misreporting trade: Tariff evasion, corruption, and auditing standards," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 106-129, February.
    4. Bob Rijkers & Leila Baghdadi & Gael Raballand, 2017. "Political Connections and Tariff Evasion Evidence from Tunisia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 459-482.
    5. Alex Cobham & Petr Janský, 2018. "Global distribution of revenue loss from corporate tax avoidance: re†estimation and country results," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 206-232, March.
    6. Lorenzo Rotunno & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2012. "Chinese Networks and Tariff Evasion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(12), pages 1772-1794, December.
    7. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from "Missing Imports" in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 471-500, April.
    8. Nitsch, Volker, 2016. "Trillion Dollar Estimate: Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80589, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    10. Javorcik, Beata S. & Narciso, Gaia, 2017. "WTO accession and tariff evasion," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 59-71.
    11. Dean Yang, 2008. "Can Enforcement Backfire? Crime Displacement in the Context of Customs Reform in the Philippines," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 1-14, February.
    12. Antoine Bouët & Devesh Roy, 2012. "Trade protection and tax evasion: Evidence from Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 287-320, April.
    13. Rebecca Wu, 1997. "Neural network models: Foundations and applications to an audit decision problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 75(0), pages 291-301, January.
    14. Djeneba Doumbia & Morten Lykke Lauridsen, 2019. "Closing the SDG Financing Gap," World Bank Publications - Reports 32654, The World Bank Group.
    15. Temesgen Worku & Juan P. Mendoza & Jacco L. Wielhouwer, 2016. "Tariff evasion in sub-Saharan Africa: the influence of corruption in importing and exporting countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(4), pages 741-761, August.
    16. Wier, Ludvig, 2020. "Tax-motivated transfer mispricing in South Africa: Direct evidence using transaction data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andualem T Mengistu & Kiflu G Molla & Giulia Mascagni, 2022. "Trade Tax Evasion and the Tax Rate: Evidence from Transaction-level Trade Data," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 31(1), pages 94-122.
    2. Beverelli, Cosimo & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Reducing tariff evasion: The role of trade facilitation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 534-554.
    3. Chalendard,Cyril Romain & Duhaut,Alice & Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Mattoo,Aaditya & Raballand,Gael J. R. F. & Rijkers,Bob, 2020. "Does Better Information Curb Customs Fraud?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9254, The World Bank.
    4. Mascagni, Giulia & Molla, Kiflu & Mengistu, Andualem, 2021. "Trade Tax Evasion and the Tax Rate: Evidence from Transaction-level Trade Data," Working Papers 16548, Institute of Development Studies, International Centre for Tax and Development.
    5. Ronald B. Davies & Zuzanna Studnicka, 2022. "Tariff Evasion, the Trade Gap, and Structural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 10151, CESifo.
    6. Temesgen Worku & Juan P. Mendoza & Jacco L. Wielhouwer, 2016. "Tariff evasion in sub-Saharan Africa: the influence of corruption in importing and exporting countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(4), pages 741-761, August.
    7. Mianshan Lai & Jia Hou, 2023. "Let us misinvoice more? The effect of de jure capital controls on trade misinvoicing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2157-2186, July.
    8. Joel CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2017. "Going beyond analysis of internal data to support customs modernization: A case study in Gabon," Working Papers 201723, CERDI.
    9. Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter & Abu Siddique & Andrew Williams, 2018. "Misreported Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7150, CESifo.
    10. Lorenzo Rotunno & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2012. "Chinese Networks and Tariff Evasion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(12), pages 1772-1794, December.
    11. Cyril Chalendard, 2015. "Use of internal information, external information acquisition and customs underreporting," CERDI Working papers halshs-01179445, HAL.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Bussy, Adrien, 2021. "Tariff evasion with endogenous enforcement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Sébastien Jean & Cristina Mitaritonna & Antoine Vatan, 2018. "Institutions and Customs Duty Evasion," Working Papers 2018-24, CEPII research center.
    15. Lin, Chin-Ho, 2018. "Tariff evasion in machinery production networks: Evidence from East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 115-126.
    16. Beverelli, Cosimo & Ticku, Rohit, 2020. "Illicit trade and infectious diseases," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    17. Dujava, Daniel & Siranova, Maria, 2022. "Is it me or you? A deeper insight into profile of misreporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 10-25.
    18. Javorcik, Beata S. & Narciso, Gaia, 2017. "WTO accession and tariff evasion," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 59-71.
    19. Yousefi, Kowsar & Vesal, Mohammad & Pilvar, Hanifa, 2020. "Import tax evasion and avoidance: Evidence from Iran," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-39.
    20. Mattos, Enlinson & Bressan, Rafael, 2022. "Nontariff barriers, trading companies and customs duties evasion," Textos para discussão 560, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gaussian Multivariate Anomaly Detection; GMAD; Illicit Financial Flow; IFF.; Trade Mispricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prof. Dr. Abd Rahim Mohamad (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://gatrenterprise.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.