Does the financial market believe in the Phillips Curve? Evidence from the G7 countries
AbstractThis paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989 - 2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rate as suggested by the traditional and Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve. Three major findings stand out: First, we find that survey participants trust in the original as well as the Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve relationship. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the expected Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve. Third, when we take into account a kink in the expected Phillips curve indicating that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle, we find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent the- oretical discussions in the literature that the Phillips curve is flatter in case of an economic downturn. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 73.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Phillips curve; Forecasting; Panel data model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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- Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & Dave Rae & Pete Richardson & Dave Turner, 2001. "Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 171-216.
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