Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy
AbstractThis study analyses whether expected budget deficits have an impact on interest rate swap spreads in France, Germany and Italy. We use monthly deficit forecasts from financial market participants to take the forward-looking behaviour of financial markets into account. Results of a SUR estimation show no significant impact of expected deficits on swap spreads over the whole sample period (1994-2004). However, we find an increase in market discipline for Germany and France since the signing of the Stability and Growth Pact, and for Germany also since the start of European monetary union. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,40.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Budget deficits; interest rate swap spreads; EMU; Stability and Growth Pact;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
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