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Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers

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Author Info
William N. Goetzmann () (Yale University, School of Management)
Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. () (School of Management)
Zoran Ivkovich () (Department of Finance)

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Abstract

This paper addresses the bias associated with parametric measurement of timing skill based on monthly timer returns when timers can make daily timing decisions. Simulations suggest that the classic Henriksson-Merton parametric measure of timing skill is weak and biased downward when applied to the monthly returns of a daily timer. The paper proposes an adjustment that mitigates this problem without the need to collect daily timer returns. Four tests of timing skill, carried out on a sample of 558 mutual funds, show that very few funds exhibit statistically significant timing skill. More encompassing, the adjusted-FF3 test (based on the specification that incorporates both the proposed adjustment and the Fama-French three-factor model) is the least biased measure of timing skill among the four--it provides for a sharper inference regarding timing skill and helps mitigate biases associated with the choice of investment style.

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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm88.

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Date of creation: 23 Apr 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm88

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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  1. Swinkels, L.A.P. & Sluis, van der P.J. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M, 2003. "Market timing: a decomposition of mutual fund returns," Discussion Paper 95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Swinkels, L. & Sluis, P.J. van der & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2003. "Market timing: A decomposition of mutual fund returns," Research Paper ERS-2003-074-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. J. C. Matallin-Saez, 2003. "Asymmetric relation in omitted benchmarks and market timing in mutual funds," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 775-778, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christensen, Michael, 2005. "Danish Mutual Fund Performance - Selectivity, Market Timing and Persistence," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2005-01, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. J. C. Matallín & A. Fernández-Izquierdo, 2003. "Passive timing effect in portfolio management," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1829-1837, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Wayne Ferson & Kenneth Khang, 2002. "Conditional Performance Measurement Using Portfolio Weights: Evidence for Pension Funds," NBER Working Papers 8790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sergey Iskoz & Jiang Wang, 2003. "How to Tell if a Money Manager Knows More?," NBER Working Papers 9791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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