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Imperfect Predictability and Mutual Fund Dynamics: How Managers Use Predictors in Changing Systematic Risk

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  • Gianni Amisano
  • Roberto Savona

Abstract

Suppose a fund manager uses predictors in changing portfolio allocations over time. How does predictability translate into portfolio decisions? To answer this question we derive a new model within the Bayesian framework, where managers are assumed to modulate the systematic risk in part by observing how the benchmark returns are related to some set of imperfect predictors, and in part on the basis of their own information set. In this portfolio allocation process, managers care about the potential benefits arising from the market timing generated by benchmark predictors and by private information. In doing this, we impose a structure on fund returns, betas, and benchmark returns that help to analyze how managers really use predictors in changing investments over time. The main findings of our empirical work are that beta dynamics are significantly affected by economic variables, even though managers do not care about benchmark sensitivities towards the predictors in choosing their instrument exposure, and that persistence and leverage effects play a key role as well. Conditional market timing is virtually absent, if not negative, over the period 1990-2005. However such anomalous negative timing ability is offset by the leverage effect, which in turn leads to increase mutual fund extra performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0706.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0706

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  1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax Rate Uncertainty," Working Papers 2010.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Bisin, A. & Geanakoplos, J.D. & Gottardi, P. & Minelli, E. & Polemarchakis, H., 2011. "Markets and contracts," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 279-288.
  3. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2008. "The Phillips Curve and the Italian Lira, 1861-1998," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 8, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  4. Alessandro Fedele & Raffaele Miniaci, 2010. "Do Social Enterprises Finance Their Investments Differently from For-profit Firms? The Case of Social Residential Services in Italy," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 174-189, October.
  5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  6. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains taxation in the real world," Working Papers 0910, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  7. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2009. "Decentralized provision of merit and impure public goods," Working Papers 0909, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  8. Martin Meier & Enrico Minelli & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2014. "Competitive markets with private information on both sides," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 257-280, February.
  9. Alessandro Fedele & Francesco Liucci & Andrea Mantovani, 2009. "Credit availability in the crisis: the European investment bank group," Working Papers 0913, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

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