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A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation

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Author Info
Lawrence R. Glosten
Ravi Jagannathan

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Abstract

We show that valuing performance is equivalent to valuing a particular contingent claim on an index portfolio. In general the form of the contingent claim is not known and must be estimated. We suggest approximating the contingent claim by a series of options. We illustrate the use of our method by evaluating the performance of 130 mutual funds during the period 1968–82. We find that the relative performance rank of a fund is rather insensitive to the choice of the index, even though the actual value of the services of the portfolio manager depends on the choice of the index.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 159.

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Date of creation: 1993
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:159

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Keywords: Mutual funds

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Philip H. Dybvig, 1987. "Inefficient Dynamic Portfolio Strategies or How to Throw Away a Million Dollars in the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 826R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jan 1988. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1987. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Roll, Richard, 1978. "Ambiguity when Performance is Measured by the Securities Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1051-69, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gallant, Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1989. "Seminonparametric Estimation of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1091-1120, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Green, Richard C & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1985. " Risk Aversion and Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 257-68, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Green, Richard C, 1986. " Benchmark Portfolio Inefficiency and Deviations from the Security Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 295-312, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Jagannathan, Ravi & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1986. "Assessing the Market Timing Performance of Managed Portfolios," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 217-35, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Dybvig, Philip H & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. " Differential Information and Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 383-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Dybvig, Philip H & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr, 1982. "Mean-Variance Theory in Complete Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 233-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Admati, Anat R, et al, 1986. " On Timing and Selectivity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 715-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Swinkels, L.A.P. & Sluis, van der P.J. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M, 2003. "Market timing: a decomposition of mutual fund returns," Discussion Paper 95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Swinkels, L. & Sluis, P.J. van der & Verbeek, M.J.C.M, 2003. "Market timing: A decomposition of mutual fund returns," Research Paper ERS-2003-074-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Marquering, W.A. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M, 2001. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Research Paper ERS-2001-75-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  4. Connie Becker & Wayne Ferson & David Myers & Michael Schill, 1998. "Conditional Market Timing with Benchmark Investors," NBER Working Papers 6434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Antonio Diez de los Rios & René Garcia, 2006. "Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns," Working Papers 06-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arjen Siegmann & André Lucas, 2002. "Explaining Hedge Fund Investment Styles by Loss Aversion," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-046/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arik Ben Dor & Ravi Jagannathan, 2002. "Understanding Mutual Fund and Hedge Fund Styles Using Return Based Style Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Driesprong, G. & Jacobsen, B. & Maat, B., 2003. "Striking Oil: Another Puzzle," Research Paper ERS-2003-082-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gemmill, Gordon T & Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2005. "Performance Measurement with Loss Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 5173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. A. Sancetta & Satchell, S.E., 2002. "New Test Statistics for Market Timing with Application to Emerging markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0222, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jon A. Christopherson & Wayne E. Ferson & Debra A. Glassman, 1996. "Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance," NBER Working Papers 5830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M., 2000. "The economic value of predicting stock index returns and volatility," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  15. Roon, F.A. de & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 1996. "Testing for spanning with futures contracts and nontraded assets : a general approach," Discussion Paper 83, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Alessio Sancetta & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "New test statistics for market timing with applications to emerging markets hedge funds," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 419-443, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Werker, B.J.M. & Goorbergh, R.W.J. van den & Roon, de F.A., 2003. "Economic hedging portfolios," Discussion Paper 102, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  18. Hayne E. Leland., 1996. "Beyond Mean-Variance: Performance Measurement of Portfolios Using Options or Dynamic Strategies," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-263-rev, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  19. Gur Huberman & Zhenyu Wang, 2005. "Arbitrage pricing theory," Staff Reports 216, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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