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Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages

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  • Jacco Thijssen

Abstract

This paper analyses the exercise decision of non-exclusive real options in a two-player setting. A general model of non-exclusive real options, allowing the underlying asset to follow any strong Markov process is developed, thus extending the existing literature, which is mainly based on one-dimensional geometric Brownian motion. For games with a first-mover advantage it is proved that an equilibrium with the rent-equalisation property exists. As an example, a duopoly where two firms can adopt a new technology, whose profitability follows a two-dimensional, correlated geometric Brownian motion is studied.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 07/17.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/17

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Keywords: Timing games; real options; rent equalisation; technology adoption;

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References

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  1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  2. Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
  3. Dutta Prajit K. & Rustichini Aldo, 1995. "(s, S) Equilibria in Stochastic Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-39, October.
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  5. repec:fth:tilbur:9992 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. J.J.J. Thijssen & K.J.M. Huisman & P.M. Kort, 2003. "The Effects of Information on Strategic Investment and Welfare," Trinity Economics Papers 200310, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  7. Simon, Leo K. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 1987. "Extensive From Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt03x115sh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  9. Simon, Leo K., 1987. "Basic Timing Games," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8kt5h29p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. Leo K. Simon., 1987. "Basic Timing Games," Economics Working Papers 8745, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999. "Effects of Strategic Interactions on the Option Value of Waiting," Discussion Paper 1999-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Simon, Leo K., 1987. "A Multistage Duel in Continuous Time," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7186g3c4, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  13. Leo K. Simon., 1987. "A Multistage Duel in Continuous Time," Economics Working Papers 8757, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.

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