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Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty

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  • Pauli Murto

    ()
    (Helsinki School of Economics)

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    Abstract

    I examine a declining duopoly in which the firms must choose when to exit from the market. The uncertainty is modelled by letting the revenue stream follow a geometric Brownian motion. I consider the Markov-perfect equilibrium in firms' exit strategies. With a low degree of uncertainty there is a unique equilibrium, where one of the firms always exits before the other. When uncertainty is increased, however, another equilibrium with the reversed order of exit may appear, ruining the uniqueness. Whether this happens or not depends on the degree of asymmetry in the firm-specific parameters.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The RAND Corporation in its journal RAND Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
    Pages: 111-127

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    Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:35:y:2004:1:p:111-127

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    Cited by:
    1. Andrew Eckert & Heather Eckert, 2014. "Regional Patterns in Gasoline Station Rationalization in Canada," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 99-122, March.
    2. Arthur Zillante, 2005. "Survival in a Declining Industry: The Case of Baseball Cards," Industrial Organization 0505004, EconWPA.
    3. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2014. "Preemption, leverage, and financing constraints," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 75-89.
    4. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    5. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    6. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    7. Boyarchenko Svetlana & Levendorskii Sergei Z, 2006. "General Option Exercise Rules, with Applications to Embedded Options and Monopolistic Expansion," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-51, June.
    8. Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
    9. Bayer, Christian, 2007. "Investment timing and predatory behavior in a duopoly with endogenous exit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3069-3109, September.
    10. Jacco Thijssen, 2007. "Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers 07/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Christian Bayer, 2004. "The Other Side of Limited Liability: Predatory Behavior and Investment Timing," Industrial Organization 0407001, EconWPA.
    12. Moon, Yongma & Yao, Tao & Park, Sungsoon, 2011. "Price negotiation under uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 413-423, December.

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