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Corporate Bond Valuation with Both Expected and Unexpected Default

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  • Marco Realdon

Abstract

This paper presents three variants of a tractable structural model in which default may take place both expectedly and unexpectedly. The model has the merit of predicting realistically high short term credit spreads. Closed form solutions are provided for corporate bonds (and default swaps) when interest rates are constant or stochastic and when the bond recovery value is exogenous or endogenous to the model. The analysis suggests that, in order for the observed short term yield spreads on high grade corporate bonds to be compensation for credit risk, bond holders must believe that a dramatic sudden plunge in the firm's assets value is possible, even if extremely unlikely.

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File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2003/0321.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 03/21.

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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:03/21

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Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
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Keywords: Corporate bond valuation: Structural model; Unexpected default; Short term credit spreads; endogenous bond recovery value; plunge of assets value;

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  1. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Jan ERICSSON & Olivier RENAULT, 2001. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," FAME Research Paper Series rp42, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  4. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June.
  5. Mella-Baral, Pierre & Tychon, Pierre, 1996. "Default risk in asset pricing," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1996021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  7. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 1995. "A Framework for Valuing Corporate Securities," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 89, Stockholm School of Economics, revised Oct 1998.
  8. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
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