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Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals

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Author Info
Thomas M Fullerton Jr (University of Texas at El Paso)
Richard A Hirth (University of Michigan)
Mark B Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

The links between commodity prices, interst rates, wages, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar with consumer prices is investigated. An ARIMA transfer function methodology is employed. Sample data are from January 1972 to December 1988. Although model diagnsotics are relatively good, variable lag lengths are uncovered and make the development of a single policy rule difficult. Commodity prices do, however, add incremental information that complements that provided by other inflationary indicators.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0409009.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409009

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 14
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Commodity Prices; Applied Econometrics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1988:i:nov:p:3-11:n:v.74no.6 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Baillie, R.T., 1989. "Commodity Prices And Aggregate Inflation: Would A Commodity Price Rule Be Worthwhile?," Papers 8808, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. C. Alan Garner, 1988. "Commodity prices: policy target or information variable?," Research Working Paper 88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Short-Run Price Dynamics in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0407027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Sylvanus I Ikhide, 2004. "An Econometric Analysis of the Nigerian Consumer Price Index," Development and Comp Systems 0407010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Cuauhtemoc Calderon, 2004. "Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0407030, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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