Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals
AbstractThe links between commodity prices, interst rates, wages, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar with consumer prices is investigated. An ARIMA transfer function methodology is employed. Sample data are from January 1972 to December 1988. Although model diagnsotics are relatively good, variable lag lengths are uncovered and make the development of a single policy rule difficult. Commodity prices do, however, add incremental information that complements that provided by other inflationary indicators.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0409009.
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 14
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://22.214.171.124
Monetary Policy; Commodity Prices; Applied Econometrics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-MAC-2004-09-12 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roy H. Webb, 1988. "Commodity prices as predictors of aggregate price change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 3-11.
- Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974.
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, . "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- C. Alan Garner, 1988. "Commodity prices: policy target or information variable?," Research Working Paper 88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May.
- Baillie, R.T., 1989. "Commodity Prices And Aggregate Inflation: Would A Commodity Price Rule Be Worthwhile?," Papers 8808, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- William Schwert, G., 1979. "Tests of causality : The message in the innovations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 55-96, January.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Short-Run Price Dynamics in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0407027, EconWPA.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Sylvanus I Ikhide, 2004. "An Econometric Analysis of the Nigerian Consumer Price Index," Development and Comp Systems 0407010, EconWPA.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, EconWPA.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Cuauhtemoc Calderon, 2004.
"Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico,"
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.