Information as a Substitute for Bailouts in Sovereign Debt Markets

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Information as a Substitute for Bailouts in Sovereign Debt Markets

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Duane Rockerbie (University of Lethbridge)
Stephen Easton (Simon Fraser University)

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Abstract

This paper argues that multilateral financial institutions (MFIs), such as the International Monetary Fund, play an important informational role in international financial markets. By providing low-cost and high quality information, that is otherwise very costly for private lenders to obtain, the MFI allows a private lender to form a more accurate estimate of the credit-worthiness of a sovereign borrower. This creates a positive externality for private lenders and for sovereign borrowers with low risk credit ratings that are revealed by the provision of MFI information. The MFI can choose to internalize the negative externality created for sovereign borrowers who are revealed to be a higher credit risk by providing stand-by commitments to the sovereign. We construct a formal model of the private lenders decision to purchase costly information about the sovereign borrower. The model suggests that the free provision of MFI information has greater positive effects on financial markets the less risk-averse the private lender, the less information the private lender already has, the greater the size of the loan, and the smaller the expected default probability of the sovereign borrower.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0303003.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 21 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0303003

Note: Type of Document - MSWord; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP; pages: 24 ; figures: included
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2003-03-25 (All new papers)
NEP-RMG-2003-03-25 (Risk Management)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1993. "Official Credits to Developing Countries: Implicit Transfers to the Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 430-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1991. "Official credits to developing countries : implicit transfers to the banks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 592, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Hwang Hae-shin, 1993. "Optimal Information Acquisition for Heterogenous Duopoly Firms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 385-402, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, . "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," CRSP working papers 484, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
Other versions:
- Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, . "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," CRSP working papers 360, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2000. "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 79-90, January.
Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
Barney, Douglas K & Alse, Janardhanan A, 2001. "Predicting LDC Debt Rescheduling: Performance Evaluation of OLS, Logit, and Neural Network Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 603-15, December.
Eckaus, Richard S., 1982. "Observations on the conditionality of international financial institutions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 767-780, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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