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Trading Turnover and Expected Stock Returns: The Trading Frequency Hypothesis and Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange

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  • Shing-yang Hu

    (National Taiwan University & University of Chicago)

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    Abstract

    This paper tries to find a widely accessible measure of liquidity and studies its impact on asset pricing. Using trading turnover as a measure of liquidity and the 1976-1993 Tokyo Stock Exchange data, I find that, cross-sectionally, stocks with higher turnover tend to have a lower expected return. This evidence is consistent with predictions derived from an Amihud-Mendelson type of transaction cost model in which the turnover measures investors’ trading frequency. The trading frequency hypothesis also predicts that the cross-sectional expected return is a concave function of the turnover and the time-series expected return is an increasing function of the turnover. The Japanese data supports both predictions.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9702001.

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    Length: 29 pages
    Date of creation: 13 Feb 1997
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9702001

    Note: Type of Document - Word (PC); prepared on PC; to print on CANON BJC-4200; pages: 29 ; figures: included. Word for Windows document submitted via ftp
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    Related research

    Keywords: turnover; expected return; transaction cost; Japan; liquidity;

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    References

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    1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    3. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
    5. Kane, Alex, 1994. "Trading cost premiums in capital asset returns--a closed form solution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1177-1183, December.
    6. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    8. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Yasushi Hamao, 1989. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 3191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Eleswarapu, Venkat R. & Reinganum, Marc R., 1993. "The seasonal behavior of the liquidity premium in asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 373-386, December.
    11. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-64, December.
    12. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. " Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-64, December.
    13. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
    16. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    17. Petersen, Mitchell A. & Fialkowski, David, 1994. "Posted versus effective spreads *1: Good prices or bad quotes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 269-292, June.
    18. Rogalski, Richard J, 1978. "The Dependence of Prices and Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 268-74, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jensen, Gerald R. & Moorman, Theodore, 2010. "Inter-temporal variation in the illiquidity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 338-358, November.
    2. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    3. Randi Næs & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2008. "Liquidity and asset pricing: Evidence on the role of investor holding period," Working Paper 2007/11, Norges Bank.
    4. Huang, Roger D. & Masulis, Ronald W., 2003. "Trading activity and stock price volatility: evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 249-269, May.
    5. Kairys, Joseph Jr. & Kruza, Raimonds & Kumpins, Ritvars, 2000. "Winners and losers from the introduction of continuous variable price trading: Evidence from the Riga Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 603-624, April.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2004. "Liquidity Premia in Dynamic Bargaining Markets," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 648, Econometric Society.
    7. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Batten, Jonathan, 2010. "An Empirical Investigation of Liquidity and Stock Returns Relationship in Vietnam Stock Markets during Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 29862, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    8. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.

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