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Modeling Liquidity Risk, With Implications for Traditional Market Risk Measurement and Management

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  • Anil Bangia
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Til Schuermann
  • John D. Stroughair

Abstract

Market risk management under normal conditions traditionally has focussed on the distribution of portfolio value changes resulting from moves in the mid-price. Hence the market risk is really in a "pure" form: risk in an idealized market with no "friction" in obtaining the fair price. However, many markets possess an additional liquidity component that arises from a trader not realizing the mid-price when liquidating her position, but rather the mid-price minus the bid-ask spread. We argue that liquidity risk associated with the uncertainty of the spread, particularly for thinly traded or emerging market securities under adverse market conditions, is an important part of overall risk and is therefore an important component to model. We develop a simple liquidity risk methodology that can be easily and seamlessly integrated into standard value-at-risk models, and we show that ignoring the liquidity effect can produce underestimates of market risk in emerging markets by as much as 25-30%. Furthermore, we show that the BIS inadvertently is already monitoring liquidity risk, and that by not modeling it explicitly and therefore capitalizing against it, banks will be experiencing surprisingly many violations of capital requirements, particularly if their portfolios are concentrated in emerging markets.

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File URL: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/99/9906.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 99-06.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:99-06

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  1. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
  2. Bertsimas, Dimitris & Lo, Andrew W., 1998. "Optimal control of execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-50, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Stange, Sebastian & Kaserer, Christoph, 2008. "Why and how to integrate liquidity risk into a VaR-framework," CEFS Working Paper Series 2008-10, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  2. Hisata, Yoshifumi & Yamai, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Research toward the Practical Application of Liquidity Risk Evaluation Methods," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 83-127, December.
  3. Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "Value at Risk: Teoría y Aplicaciones," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 136, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Mark Carey & Rene M. Stulz, 2007. "Introduction to "The Risks of Financial Institutions"," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 1-26 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mark Carey & Rene M. Stulz, 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Damiano Brigo & Mirela Predescu & Agostino Capponi, 2010. "Credit Default Swaps Liquidity modeling: A survey," Papers 1003.0889, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
  7. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
  8. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos, 2009. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: the Case of the Athens Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 112-144.
  9. Luca Erzegovesi, 2002. "VaR and Liquidity Risk.Impact on Market Behaviour and Measurement Issues," Alea Tech Reports 014, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
  10. Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig, 2002. "How large is liquidity risk in an automated auction market?," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-23, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  11. Ernst, Cornelia & Stange, Sebastian & Kaserer, Christoph, 2009. "Measuring market liquidity risk - which model works best?," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-01, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  12. Robert Engle & Robert Ferstenberg, 2006. "Execution Risk," NBER Working Papers 12165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Al Janabi, Mazin A. M., 2009. "Asset Market Liquidity Risk Management: A Generalized Theoretical Modeling Approach for Trading and Fund Management Portfolios," MPRA Paper 19498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt From the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager," IMF Working Papers 06/195, International Monetary Fund.

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