We develop a simple liquidity risk methodology that can be easily and seamlessly integrated into standard value-at-risk models, and we show that ignoring the liquidity effect can produce underestimates of market risk in emerging markets by as much as 25-30%. Furthermore, we show that the BIS inadvertently is already monitoring liquidity risk, and that by not modeling it explicitly and therefore capitalizing against it, banks will be experiencing surprisingly many violations of capital requirements, particularly if their portfolios are concentrated in emerging markets.">

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Modeling Liquidity Risk, With Implications for Traditional Market Risk Measurement and Management

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Author Info
Anil Bangia
Francis X. Diebold
Til Schuermann
John D. Stroughair

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Abstract

Market risk management under normal conditions traditionally has focussed on the distribution of portfolio value changes resulting from moves in the mid-price. Hence the market risk is really in a "pure" form: risk in an idealized market with no "friction" in obtaining the fair price. However, many markets possess an additional liquidity component that arises from a trader not realizing the mid-price when liquidating her position, but rather the mid-price minus the bid-ask spread. We argue that liquidity risk associated with the uncertainty of the spread, particularly for thinly traded or emerging market securities under adverse market conditions, is an important part of overall risk and is therefore an important component to model.

We develop a simple liquidity risk methodology that can be easily and seamlessly integrated into standard value-at-risk models, and we show that ignoring the liquidity effect can produce underestimates of market risk in emerging markets by as much as 25-30%. Furthermore, we show that the BIS inadvertently is already monitoring liquidity risk, and that by not modeling it explicitly and therefore capitalizing against it, banks will be experiencing surprisingly many violations of capital requirements, particularly if their portfolios are concentrated in emerging markets.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 99-06.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:99-06

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  1. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69. [Downloadable!]
  2. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 334-362.
  3. Bertsimas, Dimitris & Lo, Andrew W., 1998. "Optimal control of execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "Value at Risk: Teoría y Aplicaciones," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 136, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager," IMF Working Papers 06/195, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mark Carey & Rene M. Stulz, 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos, . "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Working Papers 0615, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hisata, Yoshifumi & Yamai, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Research toward the Practical Application of Liquidity Risk Evaluation Methods," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 83-127, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert Engle & Robert Ferstenberg, 2006. "Execution Risk," NBER Working Papers 12165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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