In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches
AbstractInternal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa05p787.
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2006-02-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-GEO-2006-02-05 (Economic Geography)
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- A G Wilson & P H Rees, 1974. "Accounts and models for spatial demographic analysis 2: age - sex disaggregated populations," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 6(1), pages 101-116, January.
- A Stewart Fotheringham & Phil Rees & Tony Champion & Stamatis Kalogirou & Andy R Tremayne, 2004. "The development of a migration model for England and Wales: overview and modelling out-migration," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 36(9), pages 1633-1672, September.
- P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1973. "Accounts and models for spatial demographic analysis I: aggregate population," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 5(1), pages 61-90, January.
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