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In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

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  • Leo JG Van Wissen

    ()

  • Nicole Gaag

    ()

  • Phil Rees

    ()

  • John Stillwell

    ()

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    Abstract

    Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.

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    File URL: http://www-sre.wu-wien.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa05/papers/787.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa05p787.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p787

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    1. A Stewart Fotheringham & Phil Rees & Tony Champion & Stamatis Kalogirou & Andy R Tremayne, 2004. "The development of a migration model for England and Wales: overview and modelling out-migration," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 36(9), pages 1633-1672, September.
    2. D C, 1986. "Migration and settlement. A multiregional comparative study," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 41(3), pages 609-609.
    3. P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1973. "Accounts and models for spatial demographic analysis I: aggregate population," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 5(1), pages 61-90, January.
    4. A G Wilson & P H Rees, 1974. "Accounts and models for spatial demographic analysis 2: age - sex disaggregated populations," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 6(1), pages 101-116, January.
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