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Composite Leading Indicator for the Austrian Economy. Methodology and "Real-time" Performance

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Author Info

  • Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly

Abstract

This paper describes the methodologies used for constructing a composite leading indicator for the Austrian economy (CLI-AT). First, a selection of those monthly indicators which overall fare best in showing a "steady" leading behaviour with respect to the Austrian business cycle was performed. The analysis was carried out by means of statistical methods out of the timeseries domain as well as from the frequency domain. Thirteen series have been finally classified as leading indicators. Among them, business and consumer survey data form the most prevalent group. Second, I construct the CLI-AT based on the de-trended, normalised and weighted leading series. For the de-trending procedure I use the HP filter and the weights have been obtained by means of principal components analysis. Further, idiosyncratic elements in the CLI-AT have been removed along with checking the endpoint-bias due to the HP filter smoothing procedure. I find that the "real-time" smoothed CLI-AT does not exhibit severe phase-shifts compared to a full-sample estimate. Next, I show that the CLI-AT provides a useful instrument for assessing the current and likely future direction in the Austrian business cycle. Over the period 1988-2008, the CLI-AT indicates cyclical turns with a "steady" lead in the majority of cases. Finally, in using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise it is shown that the CLI-AT carries important business cycle information and that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the projection quality of the underlying reference series.

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File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/39004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 369.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2010:i:369

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles; turning points; cyclical analysis; leading indicators; composite indicators; HP filter; principal components; out-of-sample forecasting;

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References

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  1. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Petra Sauer & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2009. "Revision Analysis of Quarterly National Accounts in Austria," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(10), pages 749-766, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Schneider, Martin, 2013. "Are Recent Increases of Residential Property Prices in Vienna and Austria Justified by Fundamentals?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 29-46.
  2. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.

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