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A Decomposition of Austria's General Government Budget into Structural and Cyclical Components

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Author Info
Serguei Kaniovski (WIFO)
Hans Pitlik (WIFO)
Sandra Steindl (WIFO)
Thomas Url (WIFO)

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Abstract

The paper describes a model for computing the trend output and the structural budget deficit in Austria. The calculation of trend output is based on a production function approach within a small macroeconomic model of the Austrian economy. A decomposition of public budgets into cyclical and structural components shows responsiveness to business cycle variations, and allows a better assessment of the sustainability of the budget balance. The model will be used in future forecasting rounds and links macroeconomic and budgetary variables of the WIFO Economic Outlook to estimates for trend output and the structural budget deficit. Until now, such decomposition has not been part of the regular WIFO forecast.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 316.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 11 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:316

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Related research
Keywords: Austria; WIFO forecast; WIFO Economic Outlook; trend output; structual budget balance;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas Url, . "How Serious is the Pact on Stability and Growth?," WIFO Working Papers 92, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  5. Thomas Url, 2001. "The Cyclical Adjustment of the Austrian Budget Balance by the European Central Bank," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 6(1), pages 36-45, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Franz R. Hahn & Ewald Walterskirchen, . "Stylized Facts der Konjunkturschwankungen in Österreich, Deutschland und den USA," WIFO Working Papers 58, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gustav Horn & Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2007. "Methodological Issues of Medium-Term Macroeconomic Projections - The Case of Potential Output," IMK Studies 04-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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