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A Decomposition of Austria's General Government Budget into Structural and Cyclical Components

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Author Info

  • Serguei Kaniovski

    (WIFO)

  • Hans Pitlik

    (WIFO)

  • Sandra Steindl

    (WIFO)

  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

The paper describes a model for computing the trend output and the structural budget deficit in Austria. The calculation of trend output is based on a production function approach within a small macroeconomic model of the Austrian economy. A decomposition of public budgets into cyclical and structural components shows responsiveness to business cycle variations, and allows a better assessment of the sustainability of the budget balance. The model will be used in future forecasting rounds and links macroeconomic and budgetary variables of the WIFO Economic Outlook to estimates for trend output and the structural budget deficit. Until now, such decomposition has not been part of the regular WIFO forecast.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 316.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 11 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:316

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Related research

Keywords: Austria; WIFO forecast; WIFO Economic Outlook; trend output; structual budget balance;

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References

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  1. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  2. C�cile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 247, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  6. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  7. Gustav Horn & Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2007. "Methodological Issues of Medium-Term Macroeconomic Projections - The Case of Potential Output," IMK Studies 04-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  8. Fritz Breuss, 1984. "Konjunkturindikatoren für die österreichische Wirtschaft," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 57(8), pages 464-492, August.
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