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COVID-19-Pandemie und internationaler Handel: Abschätzung der Entwicklung der österreichischen Warenexporte im Jahr 2020

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  • Yvonne Wolfmayr

Abstract

Die COVID-19-Pandemie hinterlässt seit Jahresbeginn deutliche Spuren in der Weltwirtschaft, Vorlaufindikatoren aus Konjunkturumfragen vom April brachen auf historische Tiefstwerte ein. Rezente internationale Prognosen gehen von einem Rückgang der Weltwirtschaftsleistung um 3% bis 9% aus. Für den Welthandel mit Waren lässt sich aus Vergleichen mit der Finanzmarktkrise 2008/09 ein drei- bis vierfach stärkerer Einbruch als der des Welt-BIP erwarten. Die Bandbreite der Ergebnisse internationaler Prognoseinstitute für den Welthandel ist jedoch groß: –9% bis –15% in optimistischeren Szenarien und –15% bis –30% in pessimistischen Szenarien. Die Größenordnungen der potentiellen Auswirkungen auf die österreichische Exportentwicklung im Jahr 2020 werden anhand von drei ausgewählten internationalen Szenarien abgesteckt. Die Schätzungen ergeben mögliche Einbußen für den österreichischen Warenexport zwischen 12% und 22%. Im Falle wesentlich pessimistischerer Varianten der Welthandelsentwicklung könnte aber auch die österreichische Ausfuhr von Waren mit bis zu 28% deutlich stärker einbrechen.

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  • Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2020. "COVID-19-Pandemie und internationaler Handel: Abschätzung der Entwicklung der österreichischen Warenexporte im Jahr 2020," WIFO Research Briefs 6, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2020:i:6
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