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Lifting economic sanctions on Iran : global effects and strategic responses

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  • Ianchovichina,Elena
  • Devarajan,Shantayanan
  • Lakatos,Csilla

Abstract

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.

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  • Ianchovichina,Elena & Devarajan,Shantayanan & Lakatos,Csilla, 2016. "Lifting economic sanctions on Iran : global effects and strategic responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7549, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7549
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    1. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2008. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered 3rd edition (hardcover + CD)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4082.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2009. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Edition (paper)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4129.
    5. M. Reza Gharibnavaz & Robert Waschik, 2015. "A Computable General Equilibrium Model of International Sanctions," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-255, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Terrie L. Walmsley & Thomas W. Hertel & Elena Ianchovichina, 2006. "Assessing The Impact Of China'S Wto Accession On Investment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 315-339, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Christen & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker & Harald Oberhofer, 2017. "Österreich 2025 – Österreichs Wettbewerbsposition und Exportpotentiale auf ausgewählten Zukunftsmärkten," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 90(1), pages 83-95, January.
    2. Farahnak, Fardin, 2022. "Comparative analysis of oil-driven economic policies for Saudi Arabia and Iran; using the CGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Ali Dadpay & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2021. "Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 147-180, March.
    4. Ghahroudi Mehdi Rasouli & Chong Li Choy, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Determinants and the Impact of Sanctions on FDI in Iran," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 15-34, February.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Growth; International Trade and Trade Rules; Energy and Mining; Energy Demand; Consumption; Energy and Environment;
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