World food prices and human development: Policy simulations for archetype low-income countries
AbstractIn recent years, world food prices have increased and fluctuated widely. This paper explores the impact of international food prices and domestic policies on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and macro indicators for two archetype low-income countries, a net food exporter and a net food importer, using Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a Computable General Equilibrium model. The simulations, which cover the period 2011-2025, indicate that the size of positive (negative) effects on macro and MDG indicators of a food export (import) price increase depend on the initial gross domestic product share for food exports (imports), leaving countries that are heavily involved in international food trade more exposed to international shocks. Given relatively low elasticity estimates, the impact of changes in food prices on undernourishment are relatively marginal. Flexible responses (in terms of production shares, whether output is exported or sold at home, and whether domestic demanders buy imports or domestic output) enable countries to benefit from or be less hurt by price changes. The case for policy responses to higher import prices is stronger for the net food importer. An untargeted food subsidy, financed by taxes or spending cuts, reduces undernourishment at the cost of a slight deterioration for most other indicators. By contrast, aid-financed food subsidies neutralize the negative impact of higher import prices whereas financing via domestic borrowing is counterproductive, leading to a deterioration across all indicators. If administered at moderate costs, tax-financed targeted transfers more effectively reduce headcount poverty and inequality with macroeconomic repercussions similar to those of tax-financed subsidies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6033.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Economic Theory&Research; Food&Beverage Industry; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 1998. "Estimating a social accounting matrix using cross entropy methods:," TMD discussion papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Natalia Caldés & David Coady & John A. Maluccio, 2004.
"The Cost of Poverty Alleviation Transfer Programs: A Comparative Analysis of Three Programs in Latin America,"
14378, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Caldes, Natalia & Coady, David & Maluccio, John A., 2006. "The cost of poverty alleviation transfer programs: A comparative analysis of three programs in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 818-837, May.
- John Maluccio & Natàlia Caldés & David Coady, 2005. "The Cost of Poverty Alleviation Transfer Programs: A Comparative Analysis of Three Programs in Latin America," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0527, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Public Capital and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/175, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.