Displacement and Return in the Internet Era : How Social Media Captures Migration Decisionsin Northern Syria

Starting in 2011, the Syrian civil war has resulted in the displacement of over 80% of theSyrian population. This paper analyzes how the widespread use of social media has recorded migration considerationsfor Syrian refugees using social media text and image data from three popular platforms (Twitter, Telegram, andFacebook). Leveraging survey data as a source of ground truth on the presence of IDPs and returnees, it uses topicmodeling and image analysis to find that areas without return have a higher prevalence of violence-relateddiscourse and images while areas with return feature content related to services and the economy. Building on thesefindings, the paper first uses mixed effects models to show that these results hold pre- and post- return as well aswhen migration is quantified as monthly population flows. Second, it leverages mediation analysis to find thatdiscussion on social media mediates the relationship between violence and return in months where there are fewer violentevents. Monitoring refugee return in war prone areas is a complex task and social media may provide researchers, aidgroups, and policymakers with tools for assessing return in areas where survey or other data is unavailable or difficultto obtain.