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The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions

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  • Alrababa'h, Ala'
  • Masterson, Daniel

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Casalis, Marine
  • Hangartner, Dominik
  • Weinstein, Jeremy

Abstract

Despite the importance of understanding how refugee crises end, little is known about when and why refugees return home. We study the drivers of refugees’ decision-making using original observational and experimental data from a representative sample of 3,003 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. We find that conditions in a refugee’s home country are the primary drivers of return intentions. Refugees’ decisions are influenced primarily by safety and security in their place of origin, their economic prospects, the availability of public services, and their personal networks. Confidence in information is also important, as several drivers of return only impact intentions among people who have high confidence in their information. By contrast, the conditions in refugee–hosting countries––so-called “push” factors––play a much smaller role. Even in the face of hostility and poor living conditions, refugees are unlikely to return unless the situation at home improves significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Alrababa'h, Ala' & Masterson, Daniel & Casalis, Marine & Hangartner, Dominik & Weinstein, Jeremy, 2020. "The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions," SocArXiv 7t2wd, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:7t2wd
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/7t2wd
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
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    3. Lehmann, M. Christian & Masterson, Daniel T. R., 2020. "Does Aid Reduce Anti-refugee Violence? Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Lebanon," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1335-1342, November.
    4. Hainmueller, Jens & Hangartner, Dominik & Pietrantuono, Giuseppe, 2017. "Catalyst or Crown: Does Naturalization Promote the Long-Term Social Integration of Immigrants?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 256-276, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Onah Peter Thompson & Jonathan Hall & James Igoe Walsh, 2021. "Information, Anxiety, and Persuasion: Analyzing Return Intentions of Displaced Persons," HiCN Working Papers 362, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Walk, Erin & Garimella, Kiran & Christia, Fotini, 2023. "Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Walk,Erin Elizabeth & Garimella,Kiran & Christia,Fotini, 2022. "Displacement and Return in the Internet Era : How Social Media Captures Migration Decisionsin Northern Syria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10024, The World Bank.

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