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Food Security, Fertility Differentials and Land Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Framework

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  • Maria Winkler-Dworak

Abstract

We study the impact of differential fertility levels for the food-insecure and foodsecure population on the long-run values of the population distribution and resources in a descriptive model, where the food security states are determined by a historically given food distribution and by the endogenous food production with resources and labor as inputs. Furthermore, we assume that the resource stock is reduced by povertydriven environmental degradation. Moreover, we incorporate nutritional effects on labor productivity and mortality. By applying local bifurcation theory, we show that the model may exhibit multiple equilibria. Furthermore, the orbits of resources and the population distribution may be characterized by quasi-periodic behavior. Sustainable development in terms of approaching a steady state with positive values of resources and food-secure population is only promoted by low fertility levels of the food-insecure and food-secure population.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2003. "Food Security, Fertility Differentials and Land Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Framework," VID Working Papers 0301, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  • Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:0301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Sobotka & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2005. "Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria," VID Working Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Brian O'Neill & Wolfgang Lutz, 2003. "Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting," VID Working Papers 0303, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    3. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2005. "Socioeconomic patterns and determinants of adult mortality due to external-causes in India: Analysis of nationally-representative, population-based survey data," VID Working Papers 0502, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    4. Bahre Gebru & Sosina Bezu, 2012. "Environmental Resource Collection versus Children’s Schooling: Evidence from Tigray, Northern Ethiopia," Working Papers 007, Policy Studies Institute.
    5. Franz Schwarz, 2004. "Analysis of Inequalities in Waiting Time at the Visit to the Physician using Regression Modeling for Duration Data," VID Working Papers 0404, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.

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