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Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Analysis and Model Selection: Theory and Evidence

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Abstract

In this study we suggest a Bayesian approach to fuzzy clustering analysis – the Bayesian fuzzy regression. Bayesian Posterior Odds analysis is employed to select the correct number of clusters for the fuzzy regression analysis. In this study, we use a natural conjugate prior for the parameters, and we find that the Bayesian Posterior Odds provide a very powerful tool for choosing the number of clusters. The results from a Monte Carlo experiment and three illustrative applications with economic data are very encouraging.

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File URL: http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0903.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0903.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0903

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-6197
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Keywords: Bayesian posterior odds; model selection; fuzzy regression; fuzzy clustering;

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  1. Giles, David E.A. & Feng, Hui, 2005. "Output and well-being in industrialized nations in the second half of the 20th century: testing for convergence using fuzzy clustering analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-308, June.
  2. David E. A. Giles & Chad Stroomer, 2003. "Does Trade Openness Affect the Speed of Output Convergence? Some Empirical Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0307, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  3. Jyh-Yaw Joseph Chen & David E.A. Giles, 2003. "Gender Convergence in Crime: Evidence From Canadian Adult Offence Charge Data," Econometrics Working Papers 0303, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  4. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  5. David E. A. Giles & Robert Draeseke, 2001. "Econometric Modelling based on Pattern recognition via the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm," Econometrics Working Papers 0101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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