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Does Trade Openness Affect the Speed of Output Convergence? Some Empirical Evidence

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Author Info
David E. A. Giles () (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)
Chad Stroomer () (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)

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Abstract

In this paper we develop flexible techniques for measuring the speed of output convergence between countries when such convergence may be of an unknown non-linear form. We then calculate these convergence speeds for various countries, in terms of half-lives, from two time-series data-sets. These calculations are based on both nonparametric kernel regression and 'fuzzy' regression, and the results are compared with more restrictive estimates based on the assumption of linear convergence. The calculated half-lives are regressed, again in various flexible ways, on cross-section data for the degree of openness to trade. We find evidence that favours the hypothesis that increased trade openness is associated with a faster rate of convergence in output between countries.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0307.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 18 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0307

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-8540
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Related research
Keywords: trade openness output convergence speed fuzzy clustering robust regression Lyapunov coefficient

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. " Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-70, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. David E. A. Giles, 2001. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and Her Trading Partners, 1950-1992," Econometrics Working Papers 0102, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Chad Stroomer & David E.A. Giles, 2003. "Income Convergence and trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthew J. Slaughter, 1997. "Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 5897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David E. A. Giles & Robert Draeseke, 2001. "Econometric Modelling based on Pattern recognition via the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm," Econometrics Working Papers 0101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  7. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Roberto Cellini & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 463-474. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Ben-David, Dan & Bohara, Alok K, 1997. "Evidence on the Contribution of Trade Reform towards International Income Equalization," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 246-55, May.
  13. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. David E.A. Giles & Hui Feng, 2003. "Testing For Convergence in Output and in 'Well-Being' in Industrialized Countries," Econometrics Working Papers 0302, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  15. Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "A Nonparametric Measure of Convergence Toward Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 0219, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Emory Economics 0306, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Slaughter, Matthew J, 1997. "Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 194-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. David E. A. Giles & Carl Mosk, 2003. "Ruminant Eructation and a Long-Run Environmental Kuznets' Curve for Enteric Methane in New Zealand: Conventional and Fuzzy Regression Analysis," Econometrics Working Papers 0306, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  21. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. O''Rourke, Kevin H, 1996. "Trade, Migration and Convergence: An Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hui Feng & David E. Giles, 2007. "Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Analysis and Model Selection: Theory and Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0710, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
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