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Modelling the Value of the S&P 500 - A System Dynamics Perspective

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Abstract

This paper seeks to model the adjustment process in the stock market by a continuous time state space model focusing on input-out relations. The value of the S&P 500 is generated as the output of the model with earnings and the interest rate as input. The model is found to fit the data well, and indicates that the stock price dynamics can be considered as a price-following-value process. The value determines the time varying trend of price, and random buy-sell pressure drives price fluctuations about value. The 1987 stock price bubble shows up clearly as a gap between price and value.

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File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp115.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 115.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:115

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Related research

Keywords: stock price; intrinsic value; stock price bubble; adjustment process;

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References

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  1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
  4. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2004. "Continuous Time Model Estimation," Working Paper Series 138, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  7. Carl Chiarella & S. Gao, 2002. "Solving the Price-Earnings Puzzle," Working Paper Series 116, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  8. Carl Chiarella & S. Gao, 2002. "Type I Spurious Regression in Econometrics," Working Paper Series 114, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. R. Chiang & Ian Davidson & John Okunev, 1996. "Some Further Theoretical and Empirical Implications Regarding the Relationship between Earnings, Dividends and Returns," Working Paper Series 60, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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Cited by:
  1. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2004. "Continuous Time Model Estimation," Working Paper Series 138, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Carl Chiarella & S. Gao, 2002. "Solving the Price-Earnings Puzzle," Working Paper Series 116, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Shamsuddin, Abul F. M. & Hillier, John R., 2004. "Fundamental determinants of the Australian price-earnings multiple," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 565-576, November.

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