Infering Forward Looking Financial Market Risk Premia from Derivatives Prices
AbstractThis paper focuses on a topical and important area of theory and practice ie. The risk premium in financial markets. While there exists a vast amount of research into its behaviour, particularly in US markets, this is largely based on regression based techniques which do not capture well the dynamic and forward looking nature of the risk premium. In this paper the variation of the unobserved risk premium is modelled by a system of stochastic differential equations connected by arbitrage arguments between the spot equity market, the index futures and options on index futures. Although various processes for the dynamic of the risk premium may be considered, we motivate and analyse a mean-reverting form. The diffusion part is specified such that the risk premium remains positive. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, information on it is extracted using an unobserved component state space formulation of the system and filtering methodology. As an initial application of the methodology, the results from daily Australian market data from the SFE over a period of twelve months are presented. The small sample properties of the parameter estimates are also examined by bootstrapping the state space system. It is well known in the filtering literature that the estimation of state space system by Kalman filter is sensitive to the specification of the quantities such as initial state variables and the prior covariance matrix. The paper also carries out approximate sensitivity analysis in this respect.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 42.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2000
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin D. Evans, 1992.
"Expected Returns, Time-Varying Risk and Risk Premia,"
92-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Evans, Martin D D, 1994. " Expected Returns, Time-Varying Risk, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 655-79, June.
- K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992.
"Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity,"
NBER Working Papers
4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
" Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1986.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W., 1988. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Itô Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 231-247, August.
- Andrew W. Lo, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- R. Bhar & C. Chiarella, 1997.
"Transformation of Heath?Jarrow?Morton models to Markovian systems,"
The European Journal of Finance,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26.
- Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "Transformation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models to Markovian Systems," Working Paper Series 53, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.