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Modelling Adverse Selection on Electronic Order-Driven Markets

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Abstract

The vast majority of models that decompose the bid/ask spread assume the quote-driven, specialist structure of the NYSE. This paper critically evaluates these models to construct a model specific for an electronic order-driven exchange. The model not only captures adverse selection and the impact of order flows on price discovery but it includes the imbalance of supply and demand inherent in the public limit order book. With this new model we investigate the change to anonymity on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Following the change to anonymity, both adverse selection and the demand/supply imbalance have an increased impact on prices while order flow has a decreased influence, suggesting the change to anonymity has improved market efficiency. The model also uncovers a change in traders’ behavior once their fear of front-running is reduced. We show that the model is stable and robust across high liquidity stocks as well as stocks with as few as 5 trades per day.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp220.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 220.

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Length: 47
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:220

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Keywords: bid-ask spread models; adverse selection; anonymity;

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References

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  1. Ahn, Hee-Joon & Cai, Jun & Hamao, Yasushi & Ho, Richard Y. K., 2002. "The components of the bid-ask spread in a limit-order market: evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 399-430, November.
  2. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
  3. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
  4. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-64.
  5. Foucault, Thierry & Moinas, Sophie & Theissen, Erik, 2003. "Does Anonymity Matter in Electronic Limit Order Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4091, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  7. Easley, David, et al, 1996. " Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-36, September.
  8. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
  9. Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2000. "The price impact of trading on the stock exchange of Hong Kong," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, February.
  10. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Frino, Alex & Mollica, Vito, 2005. "The impact of limit order anonymity on liquidity: Evidence from Paris, Tokyo and Korea," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 528-540.
  11. J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2004. "What really causes large price changes?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 383-397.
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  13. Stoll, Hans R, 1989. " Inferring the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 115-34, March.
  14. Rudy De Winne & Christophe Majois, 2003. "A comparison of alternative spread décomposition models on Euronext Brussels," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 46(4), pages 91-136.
  15. Ahn, Hee-Joon & Cai, Jun & Hamao, Yasushi & Ho, Richard Y.K., 2005. "Adverse selection, brokerage coverage, and trading activity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1483-1508, June.
  16. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
  17. Erik Theissen, 2002. "Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse20_2002, University of Bonn, Germany.
  18. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Adverse selection and bid-ask spreads: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 121-149, April.
  19. Choi, J. Y. & Salandro, Dan & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1988. "On the Estimation of Bid-Ask Spreads: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 219-230, June.
  20. George, Thomas J & Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M, 1991. "Estimation of the Bid-Ask Spread and Its Components: A New Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 623-56.
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Cited by:
  1. Philip Brown, 2011. "International Financial Reporting Standards: what are the benefits?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 269-285, August.

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